7) Island of the Lizard King Solution

[champskees]

This adventure can be difficult due to the high Skill & Stamina mandatory fights. You will need at least Skill 10 and a decent amount of Luck and Stamina. For this adventure, I recommend taking the Potion of Strength, because you will most likely use your provisions very quickly. Most failed luck rolls in this adventure ultimately force you to fight extra creatures and/or lose stamina, which is very different for Livingstone. Because you will need an extremely high Skill stat to combat the monsters, the Skill rolls in this book should be very easy to make.

- Take the Potion of Strength.
- Go left (statistically the crab or pirates ends up being about even % of winning).
- Walk across the beach to the hut.
- Help Mungo. Aw, too late...
- Fight Sk 10 St 11 Giant Crab. Use luck at least once here.
- Lift trapdoor.
- Open box.
- Drink aniseed liquid.
- Continue hacking.
- Fight Sk 6 St 6 Headhunter.
- Fight Sk 7 St 6 Headhunter.
- Fight Sk 6 St 7 Headhunter.
- Eat their food (+1 stamina).
- Keep going west.
- Go west.
- Call out to creature.
- Follow it.
- Go west.
- Get rid of leeches (D6+1 damage, -1 Food).
- Climb hill to right (+1 Luck).
- If Initial Stamina > 14:
        - Keep walking along the hill.
        - Test Luck.
        - If fail:
                - 2 Damage.
        - If successful:
                - Use food to pump stamina above 18 (if possible, otherwise above 14).
                - Reach into hollow.
                - If stamina <18, take 5 Damage. If stamina >18, take 2 Damage.
                - Attack snake.
                - Take Sog’s Helmet (auto win first round each combat).
- If Initial Stamina = 14:
        - Risk walking down the gorge.
- Open snuff box.
- Take Note and Gold Nugget.
- Fight Sk 8 St 9 Giant Lizard.
- If Initial Stamina > 14:
        - Drink at pond.
        - Test Skill.
        - If successful:
                - Fight Sk 5 St 6 Spit Toad.
        - If fail = Test Luck.
                - If successful: You avoid the combat with the Toad. 
                - If fail: Test Luck.
                        - If successful:
                                - 2 Damage.
                                - Fight Sk 5 St 6 Spit Toad. -3 Attack Strength for this combat.
                        - If fail:
                                - Lose 2 Skill.
                                - 2 Damage.
                                - Fight Sk 5 St 6 Spit Toad. -3 Attack Strength for this combat.
        - Drink water (+1 stamina).
        - Reach for casket.
        - Take Boots & Pouch (+1 Luck).
        - Do not have a spear.
- If Initial Stamina = 14:
        - Continue west.
- Use Note.
- You do not have an iron bar.
- Fight Sk 6 St 7 Crocodile.
- Keep pushing up river.
- Use Note.
- Walk past huts.
- Turn right.
- Turn left.
- Keep walking down tunnel.
- Turn left.
- Turn right (5 Damage).
- Test Luck.
    - If fail:
            - Miss out on Horn.
    - If successful: 
            - Take Horn of Valhalla (+2 Luck).
- Turn left.
- Turn right.
- If you possess boots:
        - Turn left.
        - Continue down tunnel.
        - Turn left.
        - Use Boots (+1 Luck).
        - Take Sword (+2 Skill).
        - Turn right.
        - Walk past it.
- If you do not possess boots:
        - Turn right.
        - Climb down the ladder.
- Hide in the shadows.
- You have not drunk the Potion of Clumsiness.
- Fight Sk 8 St 7 Lizard Man (only for two rounds).
- Test Luck. Fail = Fight Sk 7 St 8 Lizard Man (combat ends once you have hit enemy once).
- Test Luck. Fail = Fight Sk 7 St 7 Orc Guard.
- Roll D6. 1-2 = 4 Damage, 3-4 = 2 Damage.
- Walk overland.
- Keep walking.
- Keep walking.
- Test Luck. Fail = 2 Damage.
- Read message.
- Fight Sk 9 St 9 Hill Troll.
- You have read message.
- Take Seagull Feather.
- Climb up to cave.
- Test Luck. Fail = 3 Damage & -2 attack strength next fight.
- Fight Sk 5 St 5 Cave Woman.
- Dab Magic Powder on face (+2 Luck).
- Climb straight up side of volcano.
- Place Gold Nugget in stone circle.
- You are wearing a feather in your hair.
- Agree to the Shaman’s terms (make sure your stamina is at least 12 with Food).
- Choose Fear. You are wearing the Magic Powder on your face.
- Choose Pain. Grit your teeth and hang on.
- Choose Strength. 2D6 Stamina Test. Fail = Fail shaman’s test.
- You have passed three tests.
- Make sure you are fully healed (by using any food you have left).
- Try to bluff.
- ‘What?’
- Fight Sk 11 St 10 Styracosaurus.
- Fight Sk 9 St 9 Mutant Lizard Man.
- Take Shield (+1 Skill).
- You drank the aniseed liquid.
- Take the Monkey.
- Try to communicate with her.
- Roll D6. 1-2 = Fight Sk 9 St 8 Mutant Lizard Man. 3-4 = Fight Sk 8 St 7 Lizard Man. 5-6 = Fight Sk 6 St 5 Hobgoblin.
- If you possess the Horn of Valhalla:
        - Use the Horn of Valhalla.
- If you do not possess the Horn of Valhalla:
        - Fight Sk 10 St 10 Cyclops.
- Walk through double doors on left.
- Try to open wooden door.
- You do not have any keys.
- Charge it down.
- Test Skill.
- If successful:
        - Pick up rusty knife.
        - Take Fire Sword (+2 Skill, +2 Luck).
        - Look inside barrels.
        - Drink liquid (+1 Skill, +2 Stamina).
        - Hide under one of the benches.
        - Wait till they go.
- Fight Sk 11 St 11 Black Lion. If you possess a Fire Sword already, use luck here as long as luck > 6.
- You are carrying a monkey.
- If you are holding a fire sword:
        - Fight Sk 6 St 15 Lizard King.
- If you are not holding a fire sword:
        - Test Luck.
        - If fail: Death.
        - If successful:
                - Take Fire Sword (+2 Skill).
                - Fight Sk 10 St 15 Lizard King. Use luck here as long as luck > 6.
- Sever the Gonchong’s proboscis.
- You have freed the slaves.

[123]

I completed this without a guide!

[johnbrawn1972]

Island of the Lizard King. 11/14/7 is the limit. Potion of Strength. 13.10.21
-If you wish to scramble round the rocks to the beach in the cove to your left
-If you wish to walk across the beach to the hut
-If you wish to help Mungo
-Giant Crab sk10 st11(use 1 luck for extra damage)(if stamina <5 eat 1 meal)                6L
-If you wish to lift the trapdoor
-If you wish to open the box
-If you wish to drink the liquid in the jug
-If you would rather continue hacking your way west
-1st Headhunter sk6 st6 2nd Headhunter sk7 st6 3rd Headhunter sk6 st7(if stamina <5 eat 1 meal)
- +1 stamina. If you wish to go north-west in order to circumvent the smoke(if stamina <6 eat 1 meal)
-hand-axe. rope
-If you would rather press on
-Giant Dragonfly sk8 st4(if stamina <6 eat 1 meal)
-If you would rather set off again through the undergrowth
-Touch the crystal
- +3 stamina. Alternatively, you may leave the clearing and continue west through the undergrowth
-If you wish to communicate with them
-A hand-axe
-Ask them for something in return
-If you wish to eat them
- +2 stamina(if stamina <8 eat 1 meal)
-If you wish to call out to the creature
-If you wish to follow it
-If you wish to keep heading west
- -1d6+1 stamina. lose 1 meal(if stamina <10 eat 1 meal)
-If you would rather climb the hill to your right
- +1 luck. If you now wish to risk walking down the gorge                7L
-If you want to walk up to the boulder and read the words
-If you wish to open the snuff-box
-gold nugget
-Giant Lizard sk8 st9(if stamina <10 eat 1 meal)
-If you want to drink at the pond
- 2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=2d6 <=luck=drink* >luck=2d6 <=luck=-2 stamina >luck=-2 stamina. -2 skill    6L
-Spit Toad sk5 st6(if stamina <10 eat 1 meal)
-If you still wish to drink the water *+1 stamina. If you wish to wade into the pool to reach the casket
-Open the pouch
-Pouch of Unlimited Contents. +1 luck. Try on the boots                7L
-continue your way west again across the grassy plain
-If you do not have a spear
-If you have read the message in the snuff-box
-If you do not have an iron bar
-Crocodile sk6 st7(if stamina <6 eat 1 meal)
-If you would rather keep pushing up-river
-If you have read the message in the snuff-box
-If you wish to walk past the hut to find the mines
-If you wish to turn right
-If you wish to turn left
-If you wish to keep walking down this tunnel
-If you wish to turn left
-Turn right
- -5 stamina. 2d6 <=luck=Horn of Valhalla. +2 luck >luck=ok(if stamina <11 eat 1 meal)                6L/7L

-If you wish to turn left
-If you wish to turn right
-If you wish to turn left
-If you wish to climb over the cart and continue down the tunnel
-If you wish to turn left
-If you are wearing red leather boots
- +1 luck. Sword +2 skill            7L
-or turn right
-If you would rather walk past it
-Hide in the shadows
-If you have not drunk this potion
- +1 luck
-Lizard Man sk8 st7 for 2 rounds(if stamina <11 eat 1 meal)
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=lizard man sk7 st8 when win 1 round below(if stamina <11 eat 1 meal)            6L
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=Orc Guard sk7 st7(if stamina <11 eat 1 meal)                5L
- 1d6 1-2=-4 stamina 3-4=-2 stamina(if stamina <11 eat 1 meal)
-If you would rather walk overland
-If you would rather keep walking
-If you wish to cut the sack down
-If you would rather save it for later and set off again
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=-2 stamina(if stamina <11 eat 1 meal)                4L
-If you wish to read them
-Hill Troll sk9 st9. lose 1st round(if stamina <11 eat 1 meal)
-If you have read the Shaman’s chalk marks
-feather
-If you wish to climb up to the cave
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=-3 stamina. -2 a.s below(if stamina <11 eat 1 meal)                3L
-Cave Woman sk5 st5(if stamina <11 eat 1 meal)
-Dab some on your face
- +2 luck                5L
-If you wish to climb straight up the side of the volcano
-If you wish to place one of your own items in the stone circle
-Lose gold nugget
-If you are
-If you agree to the Shaman’s terms
-Fear
-If you are
-Pain
-If you grit your teeth and try to bear the pain
-Strength. 2d6 <=stamina=ok
-If you have now passed three tests
-Try to bluff your way across the stone archway
-What?
-Styracosaurus sk11 st10(if stamina <9 eat 1 meal)
-Mutant Lizard Man sk9 st9(if stamina <9 eat 1 meal)
-shield +1 skill
-If you have
-If you wish to take the monkey with you
-Try to communicate with her
- 1d6 1-2=Mutant Lizard Man sk9 st8 3-4=Lizard Man sk8 st7 5-6=Hobgoblin sk6 st5(if stamina <9 eat 1 meal)
-If you have the Horn Of Valhalla=ok If you do not have this horn=Cyclops sk10 st10(if stamina <9 eat 1 meal)
-If you wish to walk through the double doors in the wall to your left
-Try to open the wooden door
-If you do not have any keys
-If you wish to try to charge it down
- 2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=If you would rather walk on to the staircase**
-Pick up a rusty knife
-fire sword +2 skill. +2 luck                7L
-If you wish to look inside one of the barrels
-If you wish to drink the liquid
- +1 skill. +2 stamina(if stamina <11 eat 1 meal)
-If you would rather hide under one of the benches
-If you would rather wait to come out after they have gone into the store room
-**Black Lion sk11 st11(if have fire sword use 1 luck for extra damage)(if stamina <11 eat 1 meal)            6L
-If you are carrying a monkey on your shoulders
-If you are=ok. If you are going to fight the Lizard King with an ordinary sword 2d6 <=luck=fire sword +2 skill Lizard King sk10 st15*** >luck=start again            6L
-Lizard King sk6 st15
-***Sever the Gonchong’s Proboscis

[peasantscribbler]

Oct 14, 2013 10:44:48 GMT champskees said:

- Take Fire Sword (+2 Skill, +2 Luck).
- Look inside barrels.
- Drink liquid (+1 Skill, +2 Stamina).

Man, there are a lot of superfluous skill additions at the end of this one. Where were these in Deathtrap Dungeon when you really needed them?

[scouserob]

The Giant Crab or the Pirates 

I had two questions for Island of the Lizard King's solution, which I thought may be interesting to explore and set my probability matrix to work on.
The first is the choice of fight on the beach.
The second, which I'll deal with later, is the choice of potion to take.  (Strength or Fortune)

First the fight.   

Without any calculation, and looking at the fight in isolation, the pirates seem better.
However, by fighting the Pirates, you miss the aniseed like drink in the hut which will cost you 3 Stamina much later on.
Now 3 Stamina doesn't sound much but this adventure is a grind so perhaps that will even things out a bit.

The Luck in battle strategy for both is to use a Luck point when on Initial Luck and winning a round so that you are back to maximum Luck for attempting to get the Helmet of Sog.
If you lose a round when on 2 Stamina you will also test your Luck.

So assuming my calculations are correct...

Here is the difference in probability just for the beach fight.

Interesting.
For adventurers with Skill 10+, which is basically those who have a decent chance to complete the adventure, fighting the Pirates is a better bet to at least get off the beach alive.

Here is the difference in probability to complete the whole adventure following Champskees solution after the beach:
(Using Luck in battle against the Black Lion when you have a Fire Sword, you win an attack round and your luck is greater than 6.  Also using Luck for a saving roll when on 2 Stamina.)

So having to suffer just a 3 Stamina point penalty swings the balance and you are better off fighting the Giant Crab!
(Excepting a slight advantage for fighting the Pirates when you have 11+ Luck and a Skill of 12)

1-0 Champskees. 

[terrysalt]

I'm really liking these statistical breakdowns. Hope to see more of them.

[scouserob]

Potion of Strength or Potion of Fortune

The advantage given by purchasing a Luck Gem rather than a Stamina Gem in Willowbend, at the far side of Scorpion Swamp when trying to get all five amulets for Grimslade, got me thinking...

Would a Potion of Fortune be similarly advantageous here?

Advantages:

• You can use Luck you have above 6 to help take down the Skill 11 Stamina 10 Styracosaurus.
• You can use any remaining Luck above 6 to help take down the Skill 9 Stamina 9 Mutant Lizard Man rider.
• You can boost up to Initial Luck + 1 before the Skill 11 Stamina 11 Black Lion to help take it down, if you have a Fire Sword.
• If you don't have the Fire Sword then you will be boosted for the do or die Luck Test to get one.
  

Disadvantages:

• You don't get the full Stamina restore provided by the Potion of Strength and this is a gruelling adventure.
• With the two Luck tests in the Mines and the Luck test for the Vampire bat, the 2 point Luck boost from the Cave Woman's powder is not going to get you back to your Initial Luck for the Styracosaurus fight anyway.

The higher your Initial Stamina the more advantage you'll gain from the Potion of Strength.
The higher your Initial Luck the more advantage you'll gain from the Potion of Fortune.  (More chances to use Luck in battle.)

Finding a Potion of Strength strategy to use was tricky.
I wanted to maximise the potential Stamina gain from it, so if you ever reach 1 Stamina you should always use it rather than provisions.
I guessed that there should be some lower Stamina value you should use it for.
After a bit of experimentation I settled on always using your Potion of Strength if you go down to 5 or less Stamina.

If you are left with only the Potion of Strength after consuming all your Provisions then there is another balancing act to find the best Stamina threshold to use it without dropping too low that you'll perish in your next fight.
For this adventure, experiment seems to show that when you reach 8 Stamina is a good value. 

The Potion of Fortune strategy is as set out in advantageous the bullet points above with my usual rules for using Luck in battles when allowed.

So, assuming my calculations are correct, here are the probability differences for choosing a Potion of Fortune rather than a Potion of Strength following Champskees' path.



Oh well, it looks like the Potion of Strength is a better (often considerably better!) choice unless your Initial Luck is greater than or equal to  23 - Initial Skill.
Except when your Initial Stamina is 14, then it will be 22 - Initial Skill.

2-0 to Champskees! 

[scouserob]

Island of the Lizard King

I've tried to optimise this as much as possible whilst keeping the decisions relatively simple.

Following Champskees' path with the following strategies:

Potion Choice:
If Initial Stamina = 14:
    If Initial Luck ≥ 22 - Initial Skill:
        Choose Potion of Fortune.
    Else:
        Choose Potion of Strength.
ElseIf Initial Stamina > 14:
    If Initial Luck ≥ 23 - Initial Skill:
        Choose Potion of Fortune.
    Else:
        Choose Potion of Strength.

Potion of Strength Use:
Drink the Potion of Strength if you have some Provisions left and Stamina ≤ 5. (To maximise benefit.)
Drink the Potion of Strength if you have no Provisions left and Stamina ≤ 8. (To maximise survival chances.)

Potion of Fortune Use:
Drink the Potion of Fortune just before the Black Lion fight.

Luck in Battle Strategy:
Always test your Luck if you lose an attack round and Stamina = 2. (The last chance saving throw.)
Test your Luck if you win an attack round against the Giant Crab and Luck = Initial Luck. (You get a Luck point before trying for the Helmet of Sog.)
Test your Luck if you win an attack round against the Lizard King and Luck ≥ 7.
If you have a Fire Sword:
    Test your Luck if you win an attack round against the Black Lion and Luck ≥ 7.
If you have a Potion of Fortune:
    Test your Luck if you win an attack round against the Styracosaurus and Luck ≥ 7.
    Test your Luck if you win an attack round against the Mutant Lizard Man and Luck ≥ 7.

The Spit Toad:
Always fight the Spit Toad.

The probabilities for success, if my calculations are correct, will then be:

Probability Edits:
Bug: There was no luck point deduction when passing the Luck Test for the Helmet of Sog.

[CharlesX]

So a 12 24 12 Avatar has a 100% chance (or very roughly one) of success at Island Of The Lizard King. Almost makes it look balanced.

[scouserob]

Oct 5, 2022 15:14:05 GMT CharlesX said:

So a 12 24 12 Avatar has a 100% chance (or very roughly one) of success at Island Of The Lizard King. Almost makes it look balanced.

10 is plenty of Provisions for such a beast to stroll through with barely a scratch on them.

They can't fail the Luck test to get the Helmet of Sog and so can automatically knock off 2 Stamina (or 4 Stamina with Luck) from all enemies.

They can't fail the Luck test to get the Horn of Valhalla and so will skip the Cyclops battle.
(As they can't fail the Skill Test against the Spit Toad and so will not have to take further Luck tests before regaining their one used Luck point when finding the Pouch of Unlimited Contents.)

They can't fail the Skill test to get the Fire Sword disguised as a Rusty Knife, have 13 Luck to use in battle against the Black Lion, and then face a terrified Lizard King whose Skill of 6 is laughable compared to your 12.

The Black Lion (the toughest battle?) will only have 3 Stamina after you've won one attack round with dice due to a combination of the Helmet of Sog and two guaranteed Luck Test passes.
Then there is a 35/36 chance of finishing him off the next time you get a hit in. 

Easy.

With the unlikely assumption that there aren't bugs rampaging through my code:

[scouserob]

The Spit Toad

The Spit Toad has always been a tricky one to get my head around.

If your Stamina is 14 then you will be on your Initial Luck already after skipping the Helmet of Sog and its associated Luck test so there is very little benefit to be gained from the Spit Toad, just a a +1 Stamina drink of water.

If your Stamina is above 14 you will be one below your Initial Luck (plus any others lost from saving throws).
In that case:

Advantages:

• If you pass a Skill test then you will be on Initial Luck for the Luck test to get the Horn of Valhalla and skip a Skill 10 Stamina 10 Cyclops fight.  (You also get back to initial Luck if you pass that Luck test.)
• You will get a Stamina point from drinking the pond water.  (Every little helps.)
• You will get a Luck point from the Finely Crafted Sword in the Mine.  (Will coming in handy if you don't get the Horn of Valhalla.)

Disadvantages:

• You could potentially lose a further Luck point leaving you two below Initial Luck for the Horn of Valhalla Luck test.
• If you gain the Luck point you still have to fight the, admittedly pathetic, Skill 5 Stamina 6 Spit Toad.
• You lose 2 Stamina points if you fail both a Skill test and a Luck test.
• You fight with a 3 point handicap to your Attack Strength against the Spit Toad if you fail both a Skill test and a Luck test.
• You lose 2 Skill points if you fail a Skill test and 2 Luck tests for fights against the Crocodile (Skill 6 Stamina 7) and the Spit Toad. 

There is no way I can call it, so it is into the matrix...

It looks like the extra chance of getting the Horn of Valhalla and skipping that difficult Cyclops fight almost always outweighs any possible disadvantages.

The benefit is less when you have a stamina of 14 and are already on your Initial Luck...
WAIT WHAT!!!!
How on Earth is it better to meet the Spit Toad with a Stamina 14?

[After much checking of the code, looking for the bug that caused this, finding nothing....]

I was pretty sure that there must be a bug because the only possible benefit of fighting the Spit Toad with a Stamina of 14 is one measly Stamina point. 

Here is the probability difference with an against the rules extra Stamina point given when missing the Spit Toad:


I don't believe it. 
One tiny little extra Stamina point from the Spit Toad outweighs all of its associated risks when there is no other benefit to be found.
I guess the risks are low for those with Skill values where such penalties make a difference.

Here is how the little Stamina point makes its presence felt as you progress:


Always fight the Spit Toad then. (?)

[terrysalt]

Is the spit toad the first deviation you've found from one of Champskees' guides?

[scouserob]

Oct 6, 2022 3:20:44 GMT terrysalt said:

Is the spit toad the first deviation you've found from one of Champskees' guides?

I think so.
Only a little change, which has a minor positive effect on the probabilities whilst simplifying the path by taking out a decision point, so I like it.

Differing from one of Champskees' solutions is worrying.
I believe I read on one of his solutions that they were done using a Monte Carlo methodology (?) of shoving thousands of adventurers through the book and counting how many survived.

Correctly keeping track of say the probability of having a Skill of 10, Stamina of 6, Luck of 9, 4 Provisions, the Helmet of Sog but not the Horn of Valhalla along with all the other possibilities at each step seems to me to be a little more sensitive to the odd bug in the code.

This does lead me to think there may be a bug somewhere in my code that may be causing the difference, especially as this is so counter intuitive.

Either that or our general strategies differ enough to cause the discrepancy.

For example with obvious exceptions such as the end of the book, BIG FIGHTS, etc., I only use Provisions if I am a full 4 points below my Initial score.  (I want the full benefit damn it.)

I checked earlier whether changing this to 3 points below was optimal, got the results, wished I hadn't, and dismissed them as a chaotic mess for which a sensible and simple rule couldn't be made.

[terrysalt]

If you're getting in the same ballpark as Champskees then I'd say that's encouraging given that you're using different methods to calculate the odds. It never hurts to check for bugs of course but I can believe that for adventurers likely to complete the book, the risks attached to the spit toad are effectively nil and that a single stamina point ends up being more impactful.

[fingersonthepages]

I think this book is criminally underrated. The writing is enjoyable, the gameplay is mostly fair and there are several paths to victory without i being too easy. In pure gameplay i'd actually consider this one of the best books and its still in my top 10 or 20 otherwise

[CharlesX]

Oct 16, 2022 21:29:17 GMT fingersonthepages said:

I think this book is criminally underrated. The writing is enjoyable, the gameplay is mostly fair and there are several paths to victory without i being too easy. In pure gameplay i'd actually consider this one of the best books and its still in my top 10 or 20 otherwise

I think Island Of The Lizard King is underrated for its creativity, but the Skill 11 Lion really makes the difficulty a tad too high. I'd agree it's definitely one of Livingstone's best, maybe in his top two.

[scouserob]

Taking my cue from CharlesX in the solution thread for The Warlock of Firetop Mountain:
I get the percentage chance of winning Island of the Lizard King, pre-rolling for your Initial Skill, Stamina and Luck, to be:
35.0%