% Chance of completing FF before rolling stats

[CharlesX]

This is a very rough % chance of completing an FF worked out by extrapolating Champskees Table Skill, 3 permutations for Stamina and Luck. It becomes less accurate the further from 50% the odds are and with the 3 permutations for Stamina but it gives a feel of how fair an adventure is. Myself and scouserob have worked out some, so feel free to work out others as you wish.

Edit: Note the messages below by scouserob and I that most of these calculations are actually out owing to a incorrect method of calculation (straight division by number of permutations that does not recognise when throwing for Stamina on two dice different outcomes have different odds). The only ones below you can trust are Secrets Of Salamonis and Shadow Of The Giants by Scouserob and Starship Traveller and Blood Of The Zombies by me CharlesX.

Further Edit: Now updated as Scouserob has written some corrected versions. I will keep my original, rather worthless calculations in small print if anyone has any FF fanboy interest.

1 Warlock Of Firetop Mountain 91.12% (CharlesX)

2 Citadel Of Chaos 96.8%+ (96.8% is a slight underestimate for technical reasons I mention in the solution thread) (CharlesX)

3 Forest Of Doom 96.5-75%+ (Odds are just over 96.5% so allowing for 19 Stamina odds are very good you will win even with minimum or near-minimum stats) (CharlesX)

4 Starship Traveller 100% (CharlesX)

5 City Of Thieves 57.4% (Scouserob)

6 Deathtrap Dungeon 14.4% (CharlesX)

7 Island Of The Lizard King 35.5% (Scouserob)

8 Scorpion Swamp 

Selator 91% (Scouserob)

Poomchukker 87.2% (Scouserob)

Greedy Grimslade, 5 Amulets Quest: 27.6% (4 Amulets are allowed if you fail to get the Frog Amulet) (Scouserob)

Pedant award that if you would make up your mind to be an idiot and go in the Swamp with no patron, you have to Test Your Luck to get out alive, which would negatively affect your chances (CharlesX)

Grimslade, Minimal 3 Amulets 68.2% (Scouserob)

9 Caverns of The Snow Witch 15.6% (Scouserob)

10 House of Hell Strict interpretation of the rules 8.7% (13.05%) (CharlesX)

House of Hell Allowing Kris Knife's bonus to go above your Initial Skill 57.98% (86.97%) (CharlesX)

Champskees table in the thread does not incorporate 1 in 3 chance you will die from low FEAR;
Former figure is your likely chances allowing for this, latter figure is your chances were you to reroll adventurers starting out with inadequate FEAR.

11 Talisman of Death 36.65% (CharlesX)

12 Space Assassin 97.24% (Odds are really good you will complete Space Assassin) (CharlesX)

14 Temple Of Terror 25.3% (Scouserob)

15 The Rings of Kether
Arrest 'Blaster' Babbet: 56.5% (Scouserob)
Destroy Production Asteroid: 59.8% (Scouserob)

18 Rebel Planet 29.9% (CharlesX)

19 Demons Of The Deep 89.66% (CharlesX)

20 Sword Of The Samurai West Path 39.78% (CharlesX)
Sword Of The Samurai East Path 18.4% (CharlesX)

21 Trial Of Champions 1.67-1.99% (CharlesX)

23 Masks Of Mayhem 3.7% (CharlesX)

24 Creature Of Havoc 30.72% (CharlesX)

26 Crypt Of The Sorceror Around 3 in 10,000 (CharlesX)

29 Midnight Rogue 37.05% (CharlesX)

32 Slaves Of The Abyss 35.85%+ (CharlesX)

33 Sky Lord 4.24% (CharlesX)

36 Armies Of Death 16.62% (CharlesX)

37 Portal Of Evil 91.42% (CharlesX)

40 Dead Of Night 89.75% (CharlesX)

41 Master Of Chaos 46.79% (CharlesX)

43 Keep Of The Lich-Lord 91.63% (CharlesX)

49 Siege of Sardath 70.1% (CharlesX)

50 Return To Firetop Mountain Around 4.015% (CharlesX)

51 Island Of The Undead About 9.75% (CharlesX)

53 Spellbreaker, w\o surrender option  (Newer edition) Around 4 in 10,000 (CharlesX)

(Classic edition) Around 3.5 in 10,000 (CharlesX)

56 Knights Of Doom Champskees Solution 0.53% (CharlesX)

Sylas Solution 3.4% (CharlesX)

57 Magehunter 8-8.11% (CharlesX)

59 Curse Of The Mummy Wizard Edition 6.4% (CharlesX)

Puffin Edition 2.26% (CharlesX)

61 Bloodbones 4.46% (CharlesX)

62 Howl Of The Werewolf Standard solution About 70.295%  (CharlesX)

Kill All Bosses solution 38.68% (Charlesx)

65 Blood Of The Zombies 0.000000605% (Or on average one win every 165,210,081 attempts!!! 😭)  Playing the paperback (Scouserob)

Very low Playing Kindle version on Medium setting (CharlesX)

70 Secrets Of Salamonis 95.3-96.1% (Scouserob)

71 Shadow Of The Giants 86.3% (Scouserob)

[scouserob]

Great stuff 👍🏻
I’ll add that the ones I have calculated are from my own probability matrices, which can be seen in the respective solution thread and so are subject to any coding/assumption errors I might have made.

They also include, and average out over, every possible combination of Skill, Stamina and Luck.

[someone]

I calculated the optimal policy for House of Hell with the following weapons bonuses added to the unarmed skill:
- Shekou at section 399 (0)
- Great Danes at section 170 (+3)
- Franklin at section 336 (+3)
- Hell Demon at section 109 (+6)
A part of it can be found in the file FF10_Solution_Output.pdf in my post from Oct 14, 2023 in the following thread:
fightingfantazine.proboards.com/thread/1669/advice-publishing-self-style-gamebook
Appendix 3.1 of this file provides the non-zero probabilities of winning, depending on the starting unarmed stats, when applying the solution.
Of course, there also is 1 chance over 3 to get a 0 probability of winning, by getting 7 or 8 for the maximum fear.
Overall, it leads to a mean of about 36.505 % chances of victory before rolling for the stats.

[CharlesX]

Apr 6, 2024 8:35:35 GMT someone said:

I calculated the optimal policy for House of Hell with the following weapons bonuses added to the unarmed skill:
- Shekou at section 399 (0)
- Great Danes at section 170 (+3)
- Franklin at section 336 (+3)
- Hell Demon at section 109 (+6)
A part of it can be found in the file FF10_Solution_Output.pdf in my post from Oct 14, 2023 in the following thread:
fightingfantazine.proboards.com/thread/1669/advice-publishing-self-style-gamebook
Appendix 3.1 of this file provides the non-zero probabilities of winning, depending on the starting unarmed stats, when applying the solution.
Of course, there also is 1 chance over 3 to get a 0 probability of winning, by getting 7 or 8 for the maximum fear.
Overall, it leads to a mean of about 36.505 % chances of victory before rolling for the stats.

OK, disregarding the 13.05% for strict interpretation of the rules that is wildly different from the 86.97% I worked out. Neither I nor Champskees have factored in having to roll above 2 for Fear so I will allow for that. I imagine the remainder of the gap would be because Champskees did not allow for a weapon Skill bonus, but I believe the way Skill works in House Of Hell is that you have a Skill malus without a weapon, rather than a Skill bonus with one, which hypothetically wouldn't pass your Initial Skill.

[someone]

Apr 6, 2024 9:06:32 GMT CharlesX said:

Apr 6, 2024 8:35:35 GMT someone said:

I calculated the optimal policy for House of Hell with the following weapons bonuses added to the unarmed skill:
- Shekou at section 399 (0)
- Great Danes at section 170 (+3)
- Franklin at section 336 (+3)
- Hell Demon at section 109 (+6)
A part of it can be found in the file FF10_Solution_Output.pdf in my post from Oct 14, 2023 in the following thread:
fightingfantazine.proboards.com/thread/1669/advice-publishing-self-style-gamebook
Appendix 3.1 of this file provides the non-zero probabilities of winning, depending on the starting unarmed stats, when applying the solution.
Of course, there also is 1 chance over 3 to get a 0 probability of winning, by getting 7 or 8 for the maximum fear.
Overall, it leads to a mean of about 36.505 % chances of victory before rolling for the stats.

OK, disregarding the 13.05% for strict interpretation of the rules that is wildly different from the 86.97% I worked out. Neither I nor Champskees have factored in having to roll above 2 for Fear so I will allow for that. I imagine the remainder of the gap would be because Champskees did not allow for a weapon Skill bonus, but I believe the way Skill works in House Of Hell is that you have a Skill malus without a weapon, rather than a Skill bonus with one, which hypothetically wouldn't pass your Initial Skill.

Well, I'm not sure to understand what you mean about skill bonuses: as I mentionned, the bouses I gave are to be compared with the urnarmed skill, that is the (-3) malus for not having a weapon is included.
In other words, for each fight, your effective skill is in the range:
4-9 for Shekou since you are unarmed,
7-12 for the Great Danes since you found a weapon providing a (+3) bonus,
6-12 for Franklin since the Kriss Knife is said to give a (+3) bonus for that fight, but you might have lost 1 sk point at 397,
9-15 for the Hell Demon since the Kriss Knife is said to give a (+6) bonus for that fight, but you might have lost 1 sk point at 397 (that's the only fight for which I allow the skill/as to go over your initial sk, because otherwise giving a (+6) bonus would make no sense).

For the fear, I took the possibility of rolling 1 or 2 into account, thus the winning chances cannot be above 66.667 % anyway.

The rest of of the gap is due to:
- the optimization of luck usage in fights (I don't know how you or Champskees did it so I cannot compare it to what my computer provided),
- the possibility of getting more than 9 for the initial fear, which could allow you:
-- at 5, to use the path 59 63 instead of 23 128, which allows you to spare 2 st points,
-- at 86, to use the path 13 372 168 382 before turning to 110, which allows you to recover 2 additional st points if needed,
-- at 132, to use the path 285 108 49 195 62 156 54 before turning to 353, which allows you to recover up to 2 lk points if you can (it is obvious that you should take this option if your fear score allows it, no computer required here).

However, as I wrote, maybe I didn't understand what you meant, so please excuse me if it is not the case.

[CharlesX]

Apr 2, 2024 19:24:13 GMT scouserob said:

Great stuff 👍🏻
I’ll add that the ones I have calculated are from my own probability matrices, which can be seen in the respective solution thread and so are subject to any coding/assumption errors I might have made.

They also include, and average out over, every possible combination of Skill, Stamina and Luck.

Ah, but do they allow for using Luck in battle like someone's?

   I hadn't thought of that and it probably adds to some of these FF quite a bit. I thought at the time an estimate of around 2% for Trial Of Champions might be on the tough side.

[scouserob]

Yes.
I have macros for fights both using Luck down to and including 7 and another for using Luck to a certain amount under your Initial (and >6).

(And a few special macros such as using Luck aggressively below when it is below 7 against the Skill draining Night Horror in Temple of Terror.)

All fight macros always use Luck when hit with 2 Stamina left.

I discuss the Luck in Battle strategies in most of the individual threads but generally, aggressively, I use luck in battle when:
There is free luck point recovery ahead.
You are facing the toughest opponent(s) before full Luck point recovery/the end.
(All assuming there are no ‘serious’ in game Test your Luck trials ahead.)

If I’m unsure then I usually try a strategy out to see if it improves things.

Things could be optimised further with the luck in battle but you would then have to consult multiple sheets similar to poker all in tables, which isn’t feasible or desirable when playing.
I like to keep the Luck/Provision strategies simple.

I do find bugs in the code, but the end percentages tend to agree with Champskees Monte Carlo trial method enough that I think they are in the ball park.

(In fact they usually give a slightly higher percentage win rate.)

[CharlesX]

I believe Champskees mentions somewhere he incorporates Testing Luck in the algorithm in Crypt Of The Sorceror so assuming that is not a special case he must be allowing for use of Luck in battles.

[someone]

For the calculations I make, I actually do not use any general strategy for fights except these two obvious statements:
- if you are sure to be unlucky, then don't test your luck,
- if you can get lucky and you are sure to die if you don't test your luck, then test your luck.

For the rest, as well for any other decision I might not be sure of, I solve each gamebook individually and as a whole, and I let my computer determine what the best decision is in each case.

[scouserob]

I’m planning on doing a full, all stat combinations, probability table for The Rings of Kether once I’m done playing and mapping it.
I’m currently heading off to the, presumably not a red herring this time, asteroid. ☄️

[CharlesX]

Apr 9, 2024 18:40:04 GMT scouserob said:

I’m planning on doing a full, all stat combinations, probability table for The Rings of Kether once I’m done playing and mapping it.
I’m currently heading off to the, presumably not a red herring this time, asteroid. ☄️

I'd appreciate that. Because I'm not looking forward to the really big ones such as Seas Of Blood.

   I'm not sure what to put for poor old Gates Of Death, as I think technically you can't complete it at all, although if you interpret gamebook rules sensibly (which you shouldn't have to and arguably shouldn't do) you can complete it every time - I believe even in the event you win against the Obsidian Giants you can just loop around and try again (I might be wrong). Broken or Extremely easy or both.

[CharlesX]

Slight bump, but also a few points:

I would like\wouldn't dislike if there were more FF with different paths\victories. This both multiplies the replay value (or does in theory) and allows for challenging-but-doable play.

I may get around to Sorcery! at some point. Where as I've just said I like the notion of a Warrior route, even where it was just for those who couldn't get a spellbook, and there's a lot to like about Sorcery!, like Per my main strike against Sorcery! is a big number of errors which become distracting.

Something that becomes apparent is gameplay is more important to readers than authors. Some authors such as either Steve Jackson or Keith P. Phillips do take gameplay to heart, but not enough, and otherwise well-written, even beautiful gamebooks are affected by gameplay difficulty along with errors and curve. Again, there is a distinction between gamebooks that are 'very, very hard but still playable' - because you can always reroll for 5 minutes until you get that 6 for Skill - and gamebooks that are broken. It's subjective who might find Tower Of Destruction Gates Of Death or Crystal Of Storms broken because of their errors rather than gameplay issues but like I say, distracting.

[scouserob]

Oh dear!
Just realised that the percentages I sent you for everything except Secrets of Salamonis are off.

My error was:
I gave every combination of initial stats an equal weighting but when you roll for your Initial Stamina the distribution is not uniform.🤦🏻‍♂️
You are, for example, six times more likely to roll an Initial Stamina of 19 (1/6) than an Initial Stamina of 14 (1/36).

Blast!
Sorry. 😬
I'll get updated percentages to you for my ones, taking this into account, at some point in the near future.

[CharlesX]

Apr 24, 2024 10:55:43 GMT scouserob said:

Oh dear!
Just realised that the percentages I sent you for everything except Secrets of Salamonis are off.

My error was:
I gave every combination of initial stats an equal weighting but when you roll for your Initial Stamina the distribution is not uniform.🤦🏻‍♂️
You are, for example, six times more likely to roll an Initial Stamina of 19 (1/6) than an Initial Stamina of 14 (1/36).

Blast!
Sorry. 😬
I'll get updated percentages to you for my ones, taking this into account, at some point in the near future.

I did that!

Tbh I think the two of us had best start a new thread and redo them entirely .

   But the maths of a non-uniform distribution is a bit advanced for my B grade GCSE brain  .

   I would say it would be best done my working out a computer program formula (such as Excel) rather than just with a calculator.

[scouserob]

I've recalculated the percentage for Shadow of the Giants taking into account the Initial  Stamina distribution and it had minimal effect.
It increased the percentage slightly from 86.1% to 86.3%.

To calculate the new weightings I multiplied the total values from each Stamina row by 11*(Probability of rolling that Stamina).
(Then divided by the number of combinations at the end as before.)

The probabilities start a 1/36 for 14 then increase by 1/36th each Stamina Point up to 6/36 for 19 and then decrease back down to 1/36 for 24.

[CharlesX]

Apr 24, 2024 11:58:19 GMT scouserob said:

I've recalculated the percentage for Shadow of the Giants taking into account the Initial  Stamina distribution and it had minimal effect.
It increased the percentage slightly from 86.1% to 86.3%.

To calculate the new weightings I multiplied the total values from each Stamina row by 11*(Probability of rolling that Stamina).
(Then divided by the number of combinations at the end as before.)

The probabilities start a 1/36 for 14 then increase by 1/36th each Stamina Point up to 6/36 for 19 and then decrease back down to 1/36 for 24.

OK altered the % in line with that. The maths is still spinning my head though so maybe I'm not the best person to work with you to calculate these other % (plus, of course, I've been working with the open solutions in the thread which don't allow for 19 Stamina, or a range of other permutations).

[scouserob]

My Updated Pre-Roll Survival Probabilities
Taking into Account the Non-Uniform Stamina Distribution:

In the "Scorpion Swamp - Grimslade (5 Amulet)" quest you are allowed to carry and only get 4 Amulets if you fail the Luck Test that you need to pass to get the Amulet from the Master of Frogs.

05 City of Thieves: 57.4% (Increase of 0.1%)
07 Island Of The Lizard King: 35.5% (Increase of 0.5%)
08a Scorpion Swamp - Selator: 91.0% (Increase of 0.2%)
08b Scorpion Swamp - Poomchukker: 87.2% (Increase of 0.6%)
08c Scorpion Swamp - Grimslade (5 Amulets): 27.6% (Increase of 0.2%)
08d Scorpion Swamp - Grimslade (3 Amulets): 68.2% (New)
09 Caverns of the Snow Witch: 15.6% (Increase of 0.2%)
14 Temple of Terror: 25.3% (Increase of 0.2%)
15a The Rings of Kether - Arrest 'Blaster' Babbet: 56.5% (New)
15b The Rings of Kether - Destroy Production Asteroid: 59.8% (New)
65 Blood of the Zombies: 0.000000605% (New)
70 Secrets of Salamonis: 95.3%-96.1% (Unchanged as there are no starting rolls.)
71 Shadow Of The Giants: 86.3% (Increase of 0.2%)

[kieran]

Apr 24, 2024 13:19:19 GMT scouserob said:

08c Scorpion Swamp - Grimslade (5 Amulets Quest): 27.6% (Increase of 0.2%)

What's the chance if you only go for the minimal 3 amulets?

[scouserob]

Apr 24, 2024 15:54:40 GMT kieran said:

What's the chance if you only go for the minimal 3 amulets?

I have just calculated an pre-roll average of 68.2% when following Champskees' solution for the Grimslade 3 Amulet Quest.
However my usual sanity check with Champskees' probabilities shows that every one of my probabilities are lower than his.

This is concerning but, after a little playing, if I program in a +1 Initial Skill boost from the Magic Sword you get if you defeat Grimslade's Goblin Statue then they tie up pretty well.

I'll keep my percentage as 68.2%, without the Magic Sword boost.

[CharlesX]

Apr 25, 2024 8:45:41 GMT scouserob said:

Apr 24, 2024 15:54:40 GMT kieran said:

What's the chance if you only go for the minimal 3 amulets?

I have just calculated an pre-roll average of 68.2% when following Champskees' solution for the Grimslade 3 Amulet Quest.
However my usual sanity check with Champskees' probabilities shows that every one of my probabilities are lower than his.

This is concerning but, after a little playing, if I program in a +1 Initial Skill boost from the Magic Sword you get if you defeat Grimslade's Goblin Statue then they tie up pretty well.

I'll keep my percentage as 68.2%, without the Magic Sword boost.

I've added this figure to the list above. If anyone would like to add to the list - say Warlock Of Firetop Mountain - I will delete my dubious\failed calculations and replace them with theirs (other than Starship Travelle and Blood Of The Zombies, unless that is someone actually wants to extrapolate just how low completion odds are for Blood Of The Zombies).

[scouserob]

Apr 25, 2024 11:02:16 GMT CharlesX said:

(other than Starship Travelle and Blood Of The Zombies, unless that is someone actually wants to extrapolate just how low completion odds are for Blood Of The Zombies).

Hold my beer, that sounds like fun. 😉🍺
0.000000605% is the pre-roll average for Blood of the Zombies.
(Assuming my calculations are correct.)

[CharlesX]

Apr 30, 2024 8:32:53 GMT scouserob said:

Apr 25, 2024 11:02:16 GMT CharlesX said:

(other than Starship Travelle and Blood Of The Zombies, unless that is someone actually wants to extrapolate just how low completion odds are for Blood Of The Zombies).

Hold my beer, that sounds like fun. 😉🍺
0.000000605% is the pre-roll average for Blood of the Zombies.
(Assuming my calculations are correct.)

Well done for picking up the gauntlet !

[kieran]

Apr 30, 2024 8:32:53 GMT scouserob said:

Apr 25, 2024 11:02:16 GMT CharlesX said:

(other than Starship Travelle and Blood Of The Zombies, unless that is someone actually wants to extrapolate just how low completion odds are for Blood Of The Zombies).

Hold my beer, that sounds like fun. 😉🍺
0.000000605% is the pre-roll average for Blood of the Zombies.
(Assuming my calculations are correct.)

I'm surprised it's actually even possible. Even if you use the best weapons and roll a 6 every time, you must still lose a lot of Stamina.

[scouserob]

Apr 30, 2024 13:32:52 GMT kieran said:

I'm surprised it's actually even possible. Even if you use the best weapons and roll a 6 every time, you must still lose a lot of Stamina.

After a quick hand calculation on a run through of Champskees solution, with best dice rolls possible, I think it is possible to gain 3 Stamina over the adventure. 😮

SPOILER: Click to show

Best Case Stamina Tracker starting from 32:

Barehanded (D6-3 Damage, Maximum 3).
2D6+20 Stamina. [32]
Add 2 Stamina. [34]
Add 3 Stamina. [37]
Take Baseball Bat (D6 Damage, Maximum 6).
Fight 2 Zombies. [37]
Take Med Kit (+4 Stamina when used). [41]
Fight 8 Zombies. [39]
Add 2 Stamina. [41]
Fight 3 Zombies. [41]
Fight 4 Zombies. [41]
Take Pistol (D6+2 Damage, Maximum 8).
Fight 15 Mutant Sewer Rats. (Use Grenade in first round 2D6+1) [39]
Fight 2 Zombies. [39]
Take Shotgun (D6+5 Damage, Maximum 11).
Take 1 Damage. [38]
Fight 1 Zombie. [38]
Fight 12 Zombies. Zombies deal X2 Damage. [36]
Fight 17-(2D6+1) Zombies (-1 Grenade). [36]
Fight 2 Zombies. [36]
Roll D6. If 4-6: 5 Damage. [36]
Fight 19 Zombies. [28]
Roll D6. If 1-3: 2 Damage. [28]
Fight 1 Zombie. [28]
Take Machine Gun (2D6+5 Damage, Maximum 17).
Take Med Kit (+4 Stamina when used). [32]
Fight 16 Zombies. [32]
Take 3 Damage. [29]
Fight 17 Attack Dogs. [29]
Take Med Kit (+4 Stamina when used). [33]
Take Med Kit (+4 Stamina when used). [37]
Take Small Med Kit (+2 Stamina when used). [39]
Take Small Med Kit (+2 Stamina when used). [41]
Roll D6. If 1-3: Roll D6. If 1-3: Death. If 4-6: Take 1 Damage. [41]
Fight 2 Zombies. [41]
Take 1 Damage. [40]
Roll D6. If 4-6: Take 2 Damage & -4 Damage dealt in next combat. [40]
Take Med Kit (+4 Stamina when used). [44]
Fight 6 Zombies. [44]
Roll D6. If 1-3: Roll D6. If 1-3: Take 2 Damage. If 4-6: You have a Flak Jacket. Take 2 Damage. [44]
Fight 27-(4D6+2) Zombies (-2 Grenades). [44]
Roll D6. If 1-3: Take 1 Damage. If 4-6: Take 3 Damage. [43]
Take 2 Damage. [41]
Fight 7 Zombies. [41]
Take Med Kit (+4 Stamina when used). [45]
Take 4 Damage. [41]
Fight 20 Zombies. [38]
Roll D6. If 1-3: Take 6 Damage. If 4-6: Take 3 Damage. [35]
Fight 17 Zombies. [35]
Fight Zombie Kong with Ally Amy (D6+2). Need to deal 20+ damage in one round or take 6 Damage from enemy. [35]
Take Med Kit (+4 Stamina when used). [39]
Fight 28-(2D6+1) Zombies (-1 Grenade). [39]
Fight 24-(2D6+1) Zombies (-1 Grenade). [39]
Fight 10 Zombies. [39]
Use Browning Gun (2D6+15 Damage) on 24 Zombies. [39]
Use Browning Gun (2D6+15 Damage) on 26 Zombies. [39]
Take 4 Damage. [35]
Fight 2 Zombies barehanded (D6-3 Damage). Zombies deal X2 Damage. [35]
Use Browning Gun (2D6+15 Damage) on 27 Zombies. [35]
Lose all items except for Handgun & items kept in pocket (D6+2 Damage, Maximum 8).
Fight 13 Zombies. Zombies deal X2 Damage. (Use Grenade in first round 2D6+1) [35]
Fight Stamina 7 Zombie Yurr. Both of you fight barehanded (D6-3 Damage). [35]

Here are the end of adventure Stamina probabilities I get when starting with 32 Stamina.



So you finish on 35 Stamina about once in every 120 sextillion attempts with Initial Stamina 32.

That is approximately the total number of seconds elapsed across a million copies of our universe. 😂

[kieran]

Apr 30, 2024 15:49:04 GMT scouserob said:

So you finish on 35 Stamina about once in every 120 sextillion attempts with Initial Stamina 32.

Well, there you go - I was being unfair to Ian when I have previously called this book impossible then. It's possible in the sense that winning the national lottery is possible.

Personally, I think I'd prefer if the Gods of Fate were to smile on me when it comes to the lottery rather than Blood of the Zombies though.

[scouserob]

Here is an ordered version of the pre-roll probability list so far:

100% Book 4 - Starship Traveller
97.24% Book 12 - Space Assassin
96.8% Book 2 - The Citadel of Chaos
96.5% Book 3 - The Forest of Doom
95.3% Book 70 - Secrets of Salamonis
91.63% Book 43 - The Keep of the Lich Lord
91.42% Book 37 - Portal of Evil
91.12% - Book 1 - The Warlock of Firetop Mountain
91.0% - Book 8a - Scorpion Swamp - Selator Quest
89.75% - Book 40 - Dead of Night
89.7% - Book 19 - Demons of the Deep
87.2% - Book 8b - Scorpion Swamp - Poomchukker Quest
86.3% - Book 71 - Shadow of the Giants
70.295% - Book 62a - Howl of the Werewolf - Standard Solution
70.1% - Book 49 - Siege of Sardath
68.2% - Book 8c - Scorpion Swamp - Grimslade Quest (3 Amulets)
59.8% - Book 15a - The Rings of Kether - Destroy Production Asteroid
57.98% - Book 10a - House of Hell - With Kris Knife Bonus
57.4% - Book 5 - City of Thieves
56.5% - Book 15b - The Rings of Kether - Arrest 'Blaster' Babbet
46.79% - Book 41 - Master of Chaos
39.78% - Book 20a - Sword of the Samurai - West Path
38.68% - Book 62b - Howl of the Werewolf - Kill All Bosses
37.05% - Book 29 - Midnight Rogue
36.65% - Book 11 - Talisman of Death
35.85% - Book 32 - Slaves of the Abyss
35.5% - Book 7 - Island of the Lizard King
30.72% - Book 24 - Creature of Havoc
29.9% - Book 18 - Rebel Planet
27.6% - Book 8d - Scorpion Swamp - Grimslade Quest (5 Amulets)
25.3% - Book 14 - Temple of Terror
18.4% - Book 20b - Sword of the Samurai - East Path
16.62% - Book 36 - Armies of Death
15.6% - Book 9 - Caverns of the Snow Witch
14.4% - Book 6 - Deathtrap Dungeon
9.75% - Book 51 - Island of the Undead
8.7% - Book 10b - House of Hell - No Kris Knife Bonus
8.11% - Book 57 - Magehunter
6.4% - Book 59a - Curse of the Mummy - Wizard Edition
4.46% - Book 61 - Bloodbones
4.24% - Book 33 - Sky Lord
4.015% - Book 50 - Return to Firetop Mountain
3.7% - Book 23 - Masks of Mayhem
3.4% - Book 56 - Knights of Doom
2.26% - Book 59b - Curse of the Mummy - Puffin Edition
1.67% - Book 21 - Trial of Champions
0.04% - Book 53a - Spellbreaker - Newer Edition
0.035% - Book 53b - Spellbreaker - Classic Edition
0.03% - Book 26 - Crypt of the Sorcerer
0.000000605% - Book 65 - Blood of the Zombies

---

Still to come:

Book 13 - Freeway Fighter
Book 16 - Seas of Blood
Book 17 - Appointment with F.E.A.R.
Book 22 - Robot Commando
Book 25 - Beneath Nightmare Castle
Book 27 - Star Strider
Book 28 - Phantoms of Fear
Book 30 - Chasms of Malice
Book 31 - Battleblade Warrior
Book 35 - Stealer of Souls
Book 36 - Daggers of Darkness
Book 38 - Vault of the Vampire
Book 39 - Fangs of Fury
Book 42 - Black Vein Prophecy
Book 44 - Legend of the Shadow Warriors
Book 45 - Spectral Stalkers
Book 46 - Tower of Destruction
Book 47 - The Crimson Tide
Book 48 - Moonrunner
Book 52 - Night Dragon
Book 54 - Legend of Zagor
Book 55 - Deathmoor
Book 58 - Revenge of the Vampire
Book 60 - Eye of the Dragon
Book 63 - Stormslayer
Book 64 - Night of the Necromancer
Book 66 - The Port of Peril
Book 67 - The Gates of Death
Book 68 - Assassins of Allansia
Book 69 - Crystal of Storms

[CharlesX]

Apr 30, 2024 15:49:04 GMT scouserob said:

Apr 30, 2024 13:32:52 GMT kieran said:

I'm surprised it's actually even possible. Even if you use the best weapons and roll a 6 every time, you must still lose a lot of Stamina.

After a quick hand calculation on a run through of Champskees solution, with best dice rolls possible, I think it is possible to gain 3 Stamina over the adventure. 😮

SPOILER: Click to show

Best Case Stamina Tracker starting from 32:

Barehanded (D6-3 Damage, Maximum 3).
2D6+20 Stamina. [32]
Add 2 Stamina. [34]
Add 3 Stamina. [37]
Take Baseball Bat (D6 Damage, Maximum 6).
Fight 2 Zombies. [37]
Take Med Kit (+4 Stamina when used). [41]
Fight 8 Zombies. [39]
Add 2 Stamina. [41]
Fight 3 Zombies. [41]
Fight 4 Zombies. [41]
Take Pistol (D6+2 Damage, Maximum 8).
Fight 15 Mutant Sewer Rats. (Use Grenade in first round 2D6+1) [39]
Fight 2 Zombies. [39]
Take Shotgun (D6+5 Damage, Maximum 11).
Take 1 Damage. [38]
Fight 1 Zombie. [38]
Fight 12 Zombies. Zombies deal X2 Damage. [36]
Fight 17-(2D6+1) Zombies (-1 Grenade). [36]
Fight 2 Zombies. [36]
Roll D6. If 4-6: 5 Damage. [36]
Fight 19 Zombies. [28]
Roll D6. If 1-3: 2 Damage. [28]
Fight 1 Zombie. [28]
Take Machine Gun (2D6+5 Damage, Maximum 17).
Take Med Kit (+4 Stamina when used). [32]
Fight 16 Zombies. [32]
Take 3 Damage. [29]
Fight 17 Attack Dogs. [29]
Take Med Kit (+4 Stamina when used). [33]
Take Med Kit (+4 Stamina when used). [37]
Take Small Med Kit (+2 Stamina when used). [39]
Take Small Med Kit (+2 Stamina when used). [41]
Roll D6. If 1-3: Roll D6. If 1-3: Death. If 4-6: Take 1 Damage. [41]
Fight 2 Zombies. [41]
Take 1 Damage. [40]
Roll D6. If 4-6: Take 2 Damage & -4 Damage dealt in next combat. [40]
Take Med Kit (+4 Stamina when used). [44]
Fight 6 Zombies. [44]
Roll D6. If 1-3: Roll D6. If 1-3: Take 2 Damage. If 4-6: You have a Flak Jacket. Take 2 Damage. [44]
Fight 27-(4D6+2) Zombies (-2 Grenades). [44]
Roll D6. If 1-3: Take 1 Damage. If 4-6: Take 3 Damage. [43]
Take 2 Damage. [41]
Fight 7 Zombies. [41]
Take Med Kit (+4 Stamina when used). [45]
Take 4 Damage. [41]
Fight 20 Zombies. [38]
Roll D6. If 1-3: Take 6 Damage. If 4-6: Take 3 Damage. [35]
Fight 17 Zombies. [35]
Fight Zombie Kong with Ally Amy (D6+2). Need to deal 20+ damage in one round or take 6 Damage from enemy. [35]
Take Med Kit (+4 Stamina when used). [39]
Fight 28-(2D6+1) Zombies (-1 Grenade). [39]
Fight 24-(2D6+1) Zombies (-1 Grenade). [39]
Fight 10 Zombies. [39]
Use Browning Gun (2D6+15 Damage) on 24 Zombies. [39]
Use Browning Gun (2D6+15 Damage) on 26 Zombies. [39]
Take 4 Damage. [35]
Fight 2 Zombies barehanded (D6-3 Damage). Zombies deal X2 Damage. [35]
Use Browning Gun (2D6+15 Damage) on 27 Zombies. [35]
Lose all items except for Handgun & items kept in pocket (D6+2 Damage, Maximum 8).
Fight 13 Zombies. Zombies deal X2 Damage. (Use Grenade in first round 2D6+1) [35]
Fight Stamina 7 Zombie Yurr. Both of you fight barehanded (D6-3 Damage). [35]

Here are the end of adventure Stamina probabilities I get when starting with 32 Stamina.



So you finish on 35 Stamina about once in every 120 sextillion attempts with Initial Stamina 32.

That is approximately the total number of seconds elapsed across a million copies of our universe. 😂

"Your majesty, the army of monkeys you set to work on typewriters have just finished Hamlet. And they've also completed Blood Of The Zombies with 35 Stamina".