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Post by johnbrawn1972 on Sept 19, 2018 15:10:56 GMT
No. My system is 1/2, 1/3, 1/6 and then the dice roll so, as far as I can tell, my reasoning is correct. This means the final dice roll(nice to have it there) is all or nothing?
I am not fanatical about 'rules'(the 'spirit' of them?) but do you obey the 'rule' where Fizzgig is only for a spirit?(skill/stamina/luck). I use it for Banish Spirit in my system.
I take it as read if you lose Marrok(Host) then the Gatekeeper(quality control) is lethal(for an 8 skill anyway)?
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Post by champskees on Sept 19, 2018 23:05:58 GMT
For Skill 7: Flibber path: ~76.8% chance of acquiring Shade Witch path: ~90.1% chance of acquiring Shade
Actually I don't use Fizzgig to heal at all in my program. I use it only for Banish Spirit in the program, but I see better utility from use of its Stamina spell. Possibly its Luck spell too if you have high enough Luck. I do feel Fizzgig should only apply to your spirit form. Personally I reckon Fizzgig should be able to be used at any time, as there is nothing restricting you from doing so, but that is most certainly up to interpretation.
The Gatekeeper is not necessarily lethal for a Skill 7 character if your Host is killed. Because you continue the fight from where your Host left off, it is very possible the Gatekeeper is already severely wounded. You may only have to hit him once or twice to finish the job (luck would help in this regard). Same goes for creatures like the Bonebeast etc. Even Iago may help take a fair chunk of stamina off him before you have to 'step in'.
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Post by johnbrawn1972 on Sept 20, 2018 12:04:38 GMT
No. The consecutive steps are 1/2, 1/3, 1/6 and then the last step is the nice 'last resort' dice roll so there is something wrong here unless I am missing something.
As far as I know there is no further chance to acquire Shade so are you sure you do not have your wires crossed?
The upshot is adding the chances together above equals 6/6 so it equals 1. Next is the dice roll where an 8 or less on the skill roll is success so it must be 72%?
Is this right or not?
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Post by champskees on Sept 21, 2018 23:03:37 GMT
No. The consecutive steps are 1/2, 1/3, 1/6 and then the last step is the nice 'last resort' dice roll so there is something wrong here unless I am missing something. As far as I know there is no further chance to acquire Shade so are you sure you do not have your wires crossed? The upshot is adding the chances together above equals 6/6 so it equals 1. Next is the dice roll where an 8 or less on the skill roll is success so it must be 72%? Is this right or not? I'm trying to be patient here lol... If you flip two coins, and you need to get at least one 'heads', what is the probability of this occurring? Each coin is 1/2 chance. By your thinking, 1/2+1/2=1, so 100%. This is obviously incorrect, because you can flip two tails. In this example, the chance of flipping at least one heads is 75%. So, witch path...chance of getting shade at least once... 1/2 with witch... 50% 1/3 with shrine guy... 50%x33.3% 1/6 with fizzgig guy... 33.3%x16.6% 72% with sk 7+1... 27.8%x72% So... .5+.167+.055+.20=.922 Fibber path...chance of getting shade at least once... 1/6 with fizzgig guy...16.6% 72% with sk 7+1... 83.3%x72% So... .166+.60=76.6 This is just on my phone so hope this clarifies things? Maybe you forgot that the 1/6 shade is obtained in the catacombs and tfore flibber path could also obtain it?
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Post by johnbrawn1972 on Sept 22, 2018 15:24:06 GMT
I think I see what you are on about. My GCSE mathematics exam was exactly 30 years ago and I appear to forgotten a lot of the mathematical rules. I cannot remember the difference between adding up 1/2, 1/3, 1/6 or multiplying them together. I figured the reason it was those fractions was it added up to 1, and this must a JG decision, as it seemed too much of a coincidence it added up to one. What does it mean mathematically? Anything/nothing?
I think I had tunnel vision only thinking about my system so I thought you meant there was another Shade after the 'last chance' dice roll.
Again I cannot remember my mathematics well enough but I thought they were two independent functions. I interpreted it as the 1/6 as being independent so, 'trying to remember', it is a (help from your post)16.6% probability. I then thought it was independent again as you are only rolling against an 8.
I seem to have forgotten the mathematics of adding and multiplying as in your GCSE 'show your working' above.
I see what you mean and I think we can 'almost' put this to rest.
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Post by johnbrawn1972 on Mar 18, 2019 18:21:50 GMT
I am not going to do a radical volte face or anything bizarre but I think I agree with Champskees on the "Who is the Lord of Valsinore?" issue.
The book gives the option to fight which will be a real test if you fail to acquire Shade but it does reveal, sort of, who Unthank is the main difference being you are not given the privilege of going for the Spirit Stone. So now I think the Champskees option is a real strategy.
My, as ever, parsimonious 7/14/7 or 8/15/7 will have real trouble winning that fight so that probably drove my initial reasoning though I do not remember.
As to overall strategy it is a case of probabilities versus outcomes but even this falls heavily in the direction of probabilities as it is so hard to argue with the mathematics.
My system is perhaps more 'romantic' with the possibility of a final showdown yet it is hard to defend this against ruthless probability analysis.
In everything from business to sport it is the numbers that always win.
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Post by johnbrawn1972 on Mar 21, 2019 16:37:02 GMT
I have noticed something a bit strange about Champskees solution
1 Is the Amethyst Blade necessary?
2 Relatedly if you do not have the Codex Mortis then what are you supposed to do?
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Post by marblefigure on Apr 20, 2019 20:38:39 GMT
The Amethyst Blade is pretty cool in terms of concept and design, but it definitely isn't needed if you have the Codex Mortis. It's only necessary if you're going to defeat the Shadow King in combat. Even a minimum stats character can do that with the black hourglass, the Soul Shield, the Oil of Midnight, and the Amethyst Blade. Quite the shopping list of needed items though.
By the way, who would have guessed that the player character was a mage all along, hence able to use the Codex Mortis? I wouldn't have guessed it.
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Post by johnbrawn1972 on Apr 21, 2019 10:38:05 GMT
The Amethyst Blade is pretty cool in terms of concept and design, but it definitely isn't needed if you have the Codex Mortis. It's only necessary if you're going to defeat the Shadow King in combat. Even a minimum stats character can do that with the black hourglass, the Soul Shield, the Oil of Midnight, and the Amethyst Blade. Quite the shopping list of needed items though. By the way, who would have guessed that the player character was a mage all along, hence able to use the Codex Mortis? I wouldn't have guessed it. The four items you need follow very naturally in my solution but Champskees mathematics is hard to argue with. What he is arguing is to fight the skill 11 Bonebeast, as the most difficult opponent, while you have the advantage of the skill 12 Cador plus the -1 attack strength Korzen. This is a significant advantage and I would suggest to use 1 luck for extra damage as you have attacked directly. If you fight the Shadow King with the four items you are at a -1 attack strength disadvantage. Nevertheless the Amethyst Blade should compensate as you only need to win three attack rounds to win. The point Champskees is making is why take the risk when you have a crushing advantage against the Bonebeast. Also Cador has sufficient stamina to absorb a decent amount of punishment.
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Post by marblefigure on Apr 22, 2019 15:58:48 GMT
Of course fighting the Shadow King doesn't improve percentage probability chances of winning. But it could be satisfying. The player character is supposed to be a warrior, after all, not a mage. Using the Codex Mortis would make better sense storywise if the player character had a buddy character who was a mage who could read it - or even if that were something Fizzigig did.
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Post by champskees on May 5, 2019 4:56:14 GMT
Of course fighting the Shadow King doesn't improve percentage probability chances of winning. But it could be satisfying. The player character is supposed to be a warrior, after all, not a mage. Using the Codex Mortis would make better sense storywise if the player character had a buddy character who was a mage who could read it - or even if that were something Fizzigig did. I think the use of the Codex Mortis in the adventure is explained well enough by Green. In para 135, it states that you are able to read the book, the problem is that you lack the necessary necromantic lore to understand exactly what each of the spells will do. I think it's plausible that Professor Snape would have taught the language to you as part of your education at Valsinore.
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Post by marblefigure on May 6, 2019 9:58:41 GMT
If you want to insert Harry Potter crossovers, then the player character suddenly being able to do Necromancy is on a par with Ron suddenly picking up Parseltongue. The mystic ability to talk to snakes which Harry shared with the Dark Lord because of their soul bond can now be picked up by any slob who pays attention for five minutes.
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Post by schlendrian on May 6, 2019 16:20:59 GMT
Harry Potter aside, in a lot of folk tales and fantasy stories, it's not practicing the dark arts that is the hard part. It's living with the consequences that come with it (losing your soul, living a cursed life,releasing unspeakable horror on the world or some such). I guess for the character of NotN, this just isn't that much of a concern anymore. So, I wouldn't see you being able to use necromantic lore as problematic storywise.
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Post by champskees on May 7, 2019 8:28:53 GMT
Marblefigure, perhaps my point is too subtle. The text clearly states that you can read the Codex Mortis, fullstop. My Hp reference is more of a playful nudge that you are a noble, and as a noble I would be surprised that you would not receive an education, particularly one that provides some insight into the evil you intend to face. I think you may also be typecasting the hero as a cookie cutter warrior without considering their position as the true Lord of Valsinore.
Consider that the Codex Mortis is essentially found in Valsinore Keep. Is the artefact perhaps accessible to you because of your lineage? Or do you consider it to be simply a random magical item located conveniently in your castle?
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Post by johnbrawn1972 on May 7, 2019 12:57:34 GMT
Marblefigure, perhaps my point is too subtle. The text clearly states that you can read the Codex Mortis, fullstop. My Hp reference is more of a playful nudge that you are a noble, and as a noble I would be surprised that you would not receive an education, particularly one that provides some insight into the evil you intend to face. I think you may also be typecasting the hero as a cookie cutter warrior without considering their position as the true Lord of Valsinore. Consider that the Codex Mortis is essentially found in Valsinore Keep. Is the artefact perhaps accessible to you because of your lineage? Or do you consider it to be simply a random magical item located conveniently in your castle? When you have the choice of 3 spells from the Codex for a long time I thought the words were random gibberish whereas, in typical JG fashion, if you read the words in reverse the text gives a strong intimation of what the spell effect will be. That is autistic rigidity for you where it is important to avoid a sclerotic hardening of your intellectual arteries. I think the spells being presented in what seems to be gibberish implies you are not a natural magic user. Do you need to know alchemy or chemistry to use a potion? I am not sure if this is a questionable analogy. Nevertheless being able to read activates the spell but presumably you could not create spells or write a spell book. This is all a bit pedantic when I am still trying to find a huge logic flaw in Champskees solution so I can flatly refute it. I still think using 1 luck for extra damage against the Flibbertigibbet is a strong strategy as this should mean it is very likely you reach the Gatehouse with no death codewords or codeword Devourer. The only thing I would add to Champskees solution for a low skill avatar is to go into the catacombs and attack the erm Death thingy and the Death Spider to generate Watcher if you need it.(No Korzen as I think they are magical). Also for a high skill avatar stay and talk to erm Oriana so Umberto instakills you if you need to generate codeword Watcher. I would suggest this is neater.
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Post by johnbrawn1972 on May 22, 2019 13:09:36 GMT
There is something insane about Champskees solution namely how can a 11/14/7 with 97.7% or 12/14/7 with 98.3% be better than 12/24/12 with 97.4%.
I believe my 12/24/12 system is virtually 100% but I do not have the mathematics behind my solution.
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Post by Charles X. on Jun 27, 2021 23:36:39 GMT
If you fail the Spook roll it isn't game over because you can still have the Automaton path or the Rest In Peace path, the former if your Avatar has higher Skill but lower Stamina. Champskees doesn't mention either way, but I imagine his solution assumes failure if you don't acquire the Spook skill; meaning the actual probability of success is higher than given.
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Post by johnbrawn1972 on Aug 9, 2023 15:34:23 GMT
-or the spell-casting Death Acolyte -If you want to strike the acolyte down immediately, without showing him any mercy after what he did to you -Death Acolyte sk7 st7(use 1 luck for extra damage)(reduce to <4 stamina)(if stamina=2 use 1 luck to reduce damage) 14st-10st 5L -Succumb to the lure of the Nine Maidens - +1 initial skill and +1 initial stamina and initialise. +1 luck. +1 will. Try to leave the stone circle 8S 10st-15st 7W 6L -North, towards the village and Valsinore Castle -Approach the woman -Flibbertigibbet sk8 st8 +4 stamina 15st-7st-11st -North-East, towards the bridge and Valsinore Castle -If you would rather submit to the knight - 2d6 <=skill=+1 will. +1d6+2 stamina. +1 luck >skill=Ghostly Knight sk10 st10. +5 stamina. First Death 11st-14st/11st-0st 8W 7L -If you want to try to fly over the battlements -If you have the Spirit special ability. If not 2d6 <=will and 2d6 <=luck=Spirit(1) Will you try gaining entry through the sewer outlet(2) 6L -(1)or would you prefer to come back down to earth and alight in the Outer Ward below(3) -(2)1st Skeletal Rat sk5 st4 2nd Skeletal Rat sk4 st4 3rd Skeletal Rat sk5 st5(use 1 luck for extra damage)(3) 5L -(3)The kennels -Barking. If not - -1 attack strength. +2 luck. +1 will. Best Friend 8(-1)S 9W 7L -The guard barracks -Attempt to engage him in conversation rather than battle -turn 89 -any -Four-two-one. +1 luck. Braveheart -If you would rather not delay here, you can leave the Outer Ward and make for the Inner Ward, approaching the Barbican that separates these two parts of the castle -Do you have any of the codewords Bell, Barking, Barracks, Battlements or Blacksmith recorded on your Adventure Sheet? If so make a careful note of how many - 1st Spirit Hunter sk6 st6 2nd Spirit Hunter sk6 st6 14st/15st-12st/13st -If you want to approach the gatehouse and its sinister guardians directly -Prepare to meet the knights in battle - 1st Dread Knight sk9 st9 2nd Dread Knight sk8 st9. If do not die(4/5) or First Death(4) or Second Death(5) 12st/13st-4st/5st-0st 10W -(4)Climb the staircase through the right archway - 1st Dread Knight sk8 st8 2nd Dread Knight sk8 st9 3rd Dread Knight sk9 st8. First Death(5) or Second Death(5) 15st-11st-5st-0st 11W -(must have codeword Devourer or Watcher) -(5)Climb the staircase beyond the left archway -If you want to try to dominate his drink-addled will to make him do as you command - 2d6 <=will=ok >will=-1 luck. (if 6L must roll 1d6=6=Spook as below otherwise start again) 6L - +1 will. Spook. Gateway. +1 luck. Or will you return to the ground floor gate and re-assess your options there 12W -Attempt to pass through into the Inner Ward of the castle -If you have the codeword Gateway written on your Adventure Sheet -The Blasted Tower -If you want to wait and see what it is - +1 will. +1 luck 13W 7L -The chapel -Explore the graveyard behind it -Linger a while within the graveyard, out of sight of the man - +1 will. 2d6 <=luck=Approach the gravedigger >luck=ok 14W 6L - 2d6 <=will=ok >will=Second Death -Ghosts within the castle who might help you -Baying. Will you enter the chapel, if you haven’t tried to already -If Poltergeist or Apparition or 2d6 <=will=Apparition - -4 stamina. If you would prefer to hide yourself away in a shadowy corner and observe what they are doing for a moment first 15st-11st -Rest In Peace. -1 will. Or down a flight of stone steps to the right of the sanctuary that leads to the castle catacombs 13W -Head left -turn 47 -How to make the most of your ghostly abilities - +2 will. +1 luck. 1d6 1=Apparition 2=Poltergeist 3=Shade 4=Spectre 5=Spirit 6=Spook 15W 7L -Banshee. Fizzgig the Homunculus. 3xuse=Banish Spirit, restore spirit’s Luck, Skill or Strength -(if have codeword Devourer then(6) otherwise(7)) -(6)or the one to your right - 1d6 1-3=-1 will. Nightshade sk10 st8 4-6=Death Spider sk12 st9. Second Death(8) -(7)Alternatively, if you prefer, you could leave the catacombs altogether(8) -(8)The feast hall Strength Spell 11st-15st -If you would rather remain unobserved and already have the Shade special ability. If you do not have this ability 2d6 <=will and 2d6 <=skill. If you fail either roll. 1st Dread Knight sk9 st8 2nd Dread Knight sk8 st8(if stamina=1 use Strength Spell)* If defeated start again 15st-7st-1st-15st -Move among the acrobats and mummers -or would you prefer to keep watching and see what befalls -If you want to follow the chamberlain -or will you wait and see what unfolds, just to be sure. Third Death -If you would rather not waste the hours left between now and dawn and want to approach the Keep -*If not -If you want to approach the moat-bridge on foot -if not -If not -Use the Spirit special ability(9) Try to dodge past it 2d6 <=skill=(10) >skill=-1d6+1 stamina. Hellfire Golem sk9 win 3 attack rounds(if stamina=2 use 1 luck to reduce damage)(10) If die go to Fourth Death(10) 15st-8st-2st 6L -(9)or land again on the other side of the moat at the end of the bridge -(10)If you have the Spook special ability and you want to pursue this path -turn 123 -If you have the codeword Braveheart written on you Adventure Sheet -Host. Cador sk12 st20 12(-1)S -Now that you have a physical body again, in which you can pass beyond the magically-warded portal of the Spirit Door, you can try to enter the Keep again -if not -If you have any of the codewords Revenant, Host or Armoured written on your Adventure Sheet -Hellfire Golem sk9 st12. +1 luck. Hellfire 7L -Moat Monster sk9 st11 -or would you prefer to continue on your way just as you are -*=+30 to reference to access -turn 70 -turn 38 -turn 178 -Prepare to fight whatever it is that is manifesting here - 1d6=as below(after 3 attack rounds can escape with forfeit(11)) - 1-2=Dragonkind Bonebeast sk11 st12 1 meal 20st-16st-20st - 3-4=Chimerical Bonebeast sk9 st11(use 1 luck for extra damage and if lucky use 1 luck for extra damage and if lucky use 1 luck for extra damage) 4L - 5-6=Living Fossil Bonebeast sk10 st10 1 meal 20st-18st-20st -and you want to pause for a bit of treasure-hunting - 2d6 three times. North-west spiral staircase -Use the Banish Spirit special ability -Codex Mortis -(11)If you would rather continue on your way -turn 86 -Oil of Midnight -Do you want to go left -If you would rather not get distracted and continue on your way deeper into the dungeons -turn 446 -Attack the creature -Mutant Moon Dog sk9 st10 -Soul Shield +1 to skill even above initial level 13(-1)S -if not, you could try taking the turning to your left before the creature becomes aware of your presence - 2d6 <=skill=ok -Attempt to leap across to the other side - 2d6 <=skill=ok -If you have some Ironbane and want to try that on the gate=+1 luck**If you have the codeword Revenant or Host recorded on your Adventure Sheet and you are willing to make an offering of your own flesh to the Demon Gate - -2 stamina 0 meals 20st-18st-20st 1 meal 20st-18st-20st 0 meals 20st-18st-20st -**Gatekeeper sk10 st10 -or will you fight every instinct that tells you to do otherwise and take your time to consider your actions more carefully -Use a Black Hourglass***otherwise Use the Codex Mortis -Dae deht fos tirip seh thsin abot? - +1 luck. +1 will 17W 5L -Retribution. If you have the codeword Revenant, Host, or Armoured still written on your Adventure Sheet**** -***1st Dread Knight sk9 st9 2nd Dread Knight sk8 st9 - +1 luck. +2 will. If you have the codeword Revenant, or Host, or Armoured still written on your Adventure Sheet 18W 5L -****Restore skill, stamina and luck to initial. 2d6 <=will=ok >will=start again 9(-1)S 1st-15st 7L -If you have the codeword Retribution written on your Adventure Sheet. If not***** -Unthank Undead sk9 st8 15st-11st -*****Use the Codex Mortis - -2 will. 2d6 <=will=ok >will=start again 16W
-First Death -If you none of these codewords recorded on your Adventure Sheet - 2d6 <=will=Devourer >will=Second Death -Restore skill, stamina and luck to initial. +1 will. Turn to paragraph written down
-Second Death -If you have the codeword Devourer -Restore stamina to half initial and add stamina points equal to will score -Sin Eater sk8 st8 If it wins attack round 1d6 6=-1 skill. Watcher Gate=Third Death 15st-1st -Restore skill, stamina and luck to initial. +1 will. Turn to paragraph written down
-Third Death -If you have the codeword Watcher. If you have just reached paragraph 250 or 370 otherwise*** -Will you say that you seek revenge -If you want to stick to your original answer -turn 98 -Black Hourglass**** -***a second chance - 2d6 <=luck=****Return skill, stamina and luck to initial. +1 will. Judgement >luck=Fourth Death -Turn to paragraph written down
-Fourth Death -If you have the codeword Judgement on your Adventure Sheet -Raise skill, stamina and luck to initial. +1 will. Endgame. Turn to paragraph written down
-Fifth Death -If you have the codeword Endgame written on your Adventure Sheet
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