5) City of Thieves Solution

[champskees]

This book is very linear and does not offer many paths to victory. The city section is very fun and interesting to read, but the endgame is a bit silly, particularly the Skill 11 Moon Dog & the random 'choose the correct ingredients' at the end.

- Take 30 Gold Pieces.
- Tell him you wish to be taken to Nicodemus.
- Allow yourself to be taken away.
- Ignore the old man.
- Attract the guards’ attention.
- Tell them you think you have the plague.
- Take 2 Gold Pieces & Merchant’s Pass.
- Go east down Clock Street.
- Talk to him.
- Fight Sk 5 St 5 Madman. Use luck once here.
- Smash ball.
- Place it on your head (+1 Luck).
- Take Helmet (+1 attack strength).
- Keep going northwards.
- If you have been injured: talk to the boy & drink the water (-3 Gold Pieces, restore 1 Stamina).
- If you are at maximum stamina: Keep walking north.
- Test Luck.
    - If fail:
        - Lose all gold (-All Gold Pieces).
        - Enter the shop.
        - See what she has to offer.
        - Lose 2 Food.
        - Take Golden Flower.
        - Continue west, without looking into the shop.
        - Lose Merchant's Pass.
    - If successful:
        - Set off west again.
        - Keep walking west.
        - Enter the shop.
        - Ask the price of the rings.
        - Take Ring of Fire (-8 Gold Pieces).
        - Lose 1 Gold Piece (-1 Gold Piece).
- Walk past him.
- Walk on.
- If gold > 0: Take Iron Spike (-1 Gold Piece). 

- Continue north.
- Press on.
- Climb down the steps.
- Turn east down Candle Street.
- Continue east.
- Ignore the argument and continue east.
- Climb over the wall.
- Ask to join in their game.
- Test Skill.
    - If fail and you possess an Iron Spike:
        - Lose Iron Spike and Merchant's Pass.
    - If fail and you do not possess an Iron Spike:
        - Lose 2 Food.    
    - If successful:
        - Take 8 Gold Pieces, Silver Flute, Potion of Mind Control, Chalk & Eye Patch (restore 2 stamina).
- If gold > 8: Toss a Gold Piece into his tin (-1 Gold Piece, +1 Luck).

- If you possess a Golden Flower:
    - Walk down the alleyway.
    - Fight Sk 4 St 4 Wild Dog & Sk 4 St 3 Wild Dog together.
    - You have one of Mrs Pipe's golden flowers.
    - Take 10 Gold Pieces.
- If you do not possess a Golden Flower:
    - Continue along Harbour Street.
- Hide out of sight behind a barrel.
- Walk down the jetty to climb on board the ship.
- Climb the rope ladder.
- Creep along the deck to the stairs.
- Open the door on the left.
- Creep up and try to cut it loose.
- Test Luck.
    - If fail:
        - Fight Sk 6 St 6 Pirate.
        - Fight Sk 5 St 4 Pirate.
        - Fight Sk 7 St 4 Pirate.
- Take Black Pearls (+2 Luck).
- Open the other door.
- Hide behind the door inside the room to see who is about to take a bath.
- Surprise him by drawing your sword and utter a loud 'Ahem!'
- Add Note: Ben Borryman can make silver items & lives in Clog Street.
- Leave the ship & continue your search of Port Blacksand, walking north up Harbour Street.
- Continue north up Harbour Street.
- Stop to talk with the women.
- Add Note: Hags disappearing down sewers.
- Stop to help.
- Fight Sk 5 St 4 Goblin.
- Take Knucklebones.
- Take 2 Gold Pieces.
- Take Garlic.
- Continue east.
- Enter the Silversmith shop.
- Talk to the silversmith.
- If gold >= 10: Pay for arrow (-10 Gold Pieces).
- If gold < 10: Lose all food.
- Take Silver Arrow.
- Continue east into Stable Street.
- If gold >= 7: Pay for potion (-2 Gold Pieces, +1 Luck & restore 3 Stamina).

- Lift the manhole cover.
- You wish to climb down the ladder.
- Walk north along the tunnel.
- Fight Sk 4 St 4 Rat.
- Fight Sk 5 St 4 Rat.
- Fight Sk 5 St 5 Rat.
- Continue further north along the tunnel.
- If you do not have a Potion of Mind Control:
    - Use Potion of Fortune (+1 Initial Luck, restore Luck to Initial Score).
    - Test Luck. Fail = Death.
    - Fight Sk 7 St 7 Hag.
- Take Hag’s Hair.
- Climb up ladder to continue east.
If gold >= 5 or you possess a Silver Flute:
    - Walk back to the junction and turn right into Tower Street.
    - Avoid the brawling men & continue north.
    - Walk under the bridge & continue east.
If gold <5:
    - Walk round the corner.
    - You do not have a throwing knife.
    - Fight Sk 7 St 5 Vagabond.
    - Fight Sk 6 St 7 Vagabond.
    - Fight Sk 5 St 6 Vagabond.
    - Take 1 Gold Piece.
    - Enter the white house.
    - Tell her you are a tax collector.
    - Open the bag.
    - Take 12 Gold Pieces (+1 Luck).
- Continue north.
- Hand him over to the town guards.
- Take 5 Gold Pieces.
- You wish to go into the Gardens (-1 Gold Piece).
- Risk picking one of the flowers.
- If you do not possess a Ring of Fire: Fight Sk 6 St 6 Leaf Beast.

- Take Lotus Flower.
- Walk down the lane.
- Get tattoo (pawn Silver Flute & Eye Patch for 6 Gold Pieces if short on funds)(pawn Knucklebones for 1 Gold Piece if short on funds).
- Get a silly permanent tattoo on forehead (-10 Gold Pieces, -2 Respect).
- Walk past the trolls.
- If you have a Merchant’s Pass:
    - Answer ‘no’.
    - Let them throw you out of the city.
- If you do not have a Merchant's Pass:
    - Pay the fine and be thrown out of the city (-all Gold Pieces save one).
- You now have everything you need to fight Zanbar Bone and have been tattooed (restore 2 stamina).
- Fight Sk 4-8 St 4-7 Random Monster.
    - If you fought the Ape Man:
        - Take Owl Talisman.
- Use your provisions to heal to max stamina.
- Use Potion of Fortune here if Luck < 9.
- Fight Sk 9 St 10 Moon Dog.
- Fight Sk 11 St 9 Moon Dog (I recommend using luck twice for damage against this bad boy, more if you haven't used your potion of fortune yet).
- Use Potion of Fortune here if you still possess it.
- Pull on a cord hanging down in front of the door.
- Tell him you’re a lost traveller.
- Explore the tower after waiting a few minutes.
- Climb up to the third floor.
- Climb to the next floor.
- Open the white door.
- Open the sarcophagus.
- You wish to fight the Mummy.
- Use Ring of Fire. Otherwise Fight Sk 7 St 12 Mummy.
- Take Ring of the Golden Eye (+2 Luck).
- Use your provisions to heal to max stamina.
    - If you are still low on stamina:
        - Walk back to the stairs to climb up to the next floor.
        - Carry on up the stairs.
        - Fight Sk 4 St 5 Death Hawk.
        - Fight Sk 4 St 4 Death Hawk.
        - Ask if he can heal some of your wounds (+6 Stamina).
    - If you are healthy:
        - Enter the black door.
- Walk over to chest.
- You are wearing the Ring of the Golden Eye.
- Fight Sk 6 St 7 Skeleton.
- Fight Sk 8 St 6 Skeleton.
- Fight Sk 7 St 7 Skeleton.
- Test Luck. Fail = Death.
- Try Lotus flower and Hag’s hair.
- Battle weary & hungry, you arrive in Silverton. You are given a hero’s welcome and gift after girt is bestowed upon you. You are presented with a Gold Orb worth hundreds of gold pieces. The people of Silverton are joyous once again.

[nathanh]

A few questions on this solution:

In the case where you lose all your money and you don't buy the fire ring, why not buy the lantern to defeat the mummy?

In the case where you lose all your money, if you don't win the baseball game you're presumably going to have to buy the silver arrow with all your provisions. For a low-skill character this has a reasonably chance of happening and you need to be at full stamina for the MOON DOGS to have even a vague chance of success. I'd have thought that Mrs Pipe's flowers are a reasonably insurance policy for 2 portions of provisions.

[johnbrawn1972]

I have managed to win COT with 10/14/8 but if anyone has managed to win with 9/14/8 they must have loaded dice even with the +1 attack strength helmet. I have visions of 30 attempts to make it to the final luck test and then rolling a 9.

As to the above post I believe the consensus was it is ok to lose all your gold but if you miss the ball and lose out completely you might as well start again for the very reason you assert.

Nobody has ever won COT with 7/14/8 or 8/14/8 stats surely?

[sylas]

Nov 20, 2014 22:29:19 GMT johnbrawn1972 said:

Nobody has ever won COT with 7/14/8 or 8/14/8 stats surely?

some people may claim to have achieved this and while it is certainly not impossible it is still highly improbable. the chances are perhaps better than winning through Crypt of the Sorcerer on the first attempt but then, people have laid claim to that too.

[champskees]

Nov 20, 2014 22:29:19 GMT johnbrawn1972 said:

As to the above post I believe the consensus was it is ok to lose all your gold but if you miss the ball and lose out completely you might as well start again for the very reason you assert.

Correct.

[peasantscribbler]

Nov 28, 2014 0:26:56 GMT johnbrawn1972 said:

What to do if you fail the luck test and lose all your gold in City Of Thieves. This solution also assumes you miss the ball. The minimum stats must be 9/14/7 boosted to 9/14/8 which even then requires a great deal of persistence. This complements Champskees solution which seems to tell you what to do if you pass the luck test what with all the alms being given to beggars and such like.

-Nicodemus
-Allow
-ignore
-feign
-plague(+2gp, merchant’s pass)
-east
-talk(Mad Man sk5 st5)
-Smash
-head(helmet +1 attack strength)(+1 luck)
-enter
-walk
-attack(Ogre sk8 st9)
-smash
-leave(2 gems, +15gp)
-walking
-test your luck this solution presumes fail=lose all gold
-enter

-offer(-2 provisions)(golden flower)
-enter
-sell
-accept(-2 gems, +9gp)
-rings(-8gp, ring of fire, -1gp)
-past
-walk
-north
-ahead
-steps
-east
-east
-ignore
-climb
-join
-2d6 >skill=(lose merchant's pass and ring of fire)
-past
-alleyway(1st sk4 st4 2nd sk4 st3)

-do(+10gp)
-hide
-ship
-ladder
-stairs
-right
-bath
-sword
-other
-creep
-2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=(1st sk6 st6 2nd sk5 st4 3rd sk7 st4)(6 black pearls)(+2 luck)
-leave
-north
-talk
-help(Goblin st5 st4)(+2gp, clove of garlic, knucklebones)
-east
-enter
-Talk
-afford(-10gp, silver arrow)
-east
-pay(-2gp)(+3 stamina, +1 luck)
-lift
-down
-north(1st sk4 st4 2nd sk5 st4 3rd sk5 st5)
-continue
-not

-2d6 <=luck=Hag sk7 st 7(Hag's hair) >luck=dead
-east
-corner

-not(1st sk7 st5 2nd sk6 st7 3rd sk5 st6)(+1gp)

-enter

-tax

-open(+12gp)(+1 luck)
-north
-hand(+5gp)
-gardens(-1gp)
-flowers(lotus flower)
-have
-lane
-can(-10gp)
-risk
-not

-pay(lose all gold except 1gp)
-have
-(+2 stamina) 1d6 creature
-Ape Man=owl talisman otherwise below
-eat provisions to maximum
-1st sk9 st 10 2nd sk11 st9(use luck twice)

-eat provisions

-cord
-traveller
-explore
-third
-next
-white
-open
-fight(Mummy sk7 st12)(ring of the golden eye)(+2 luck)

-eat remaining provisions

-if need stamina boost(climb, stairs, 1st st4 st3 2nd sk4 st4, heal(+6 stamina)) 

-black
-Walk
-wearing(1st sk6 st7 2nd sk8 st6 3rd sk7 st7)
-2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=dead
-Lotus flower and Hag’s hair
-Congratulations

I like the above solution for the contingency of losing your gold and losing the Bays' ball game. The only things I would add or do differently are the following: I wouldn't buy the ring of fire (you're just going to lose it at the ball game); I'd buy the lantern; I'd also buy the iron spike (which I would lose at the ball game with the merchant's pass); I'd drink the potion of fortune just before attempting to get the black pearls; I'd skip the vagabonds and the serpent queen by going back to Tower St; I'd fight the leaf beasts; and I'd use the lantern against the mummy. The cash flow would be the following: lose all your gold--0 gp remaining; sell gems--9 gp remaining; have 1 gp stolen in market--8 gp remaining; buy lantern and spike--4 gp remaining; use Mrs. Pipe's flower--14 gp remaining; kill goblin--16 gp remaining; buy silver arrow--6gp remaining; turn in the prisoner--11 gp remaining; enter park--10 gp remaining; buy tatoo--0 gp remaining. The only real problem with this solution is that it creates a logical error when you palm a gp from your 0 gp remaining as you are being removed from the city!

[peasantscribbler]

If you win the ball game, you can save your potion of fortune until the moon dogs encounter because you won't have to worry about testing your luck against the hag. If your luck score is 7 or 8, drink the potion before the fight, but only use luck twice in battle (you will get 2 luck points back when you find the ring of the golden eye). If your luck score is 9 or higher, save the potion until after the battle so that you can use luck in battle more than twice and still restore to maximum luck before the final luck test against Zanbar.

[champskees]

Nov 5, 2017 2:39:22 GMT peasantscribbler said:

If you win the ball game, you can save your potion of fortune until the moon dogs encounter because you won't have to worry about testing your luck against the hag. If your luck score is 7 or 8, drink the potion before the fight, but only use luck twice in battle (you will get 2 luck points back when you find the ring of the golden eye). If your luck score is 9 or higher, save the potion until after the battle so that you can use luck in battle more than twice and still restore to maximum luck before the final luck test against Zanbar.

Excellent points! Just about to edit my solution coincidentally and I wasn't thinking of doing this either.

[scouserob]

Hi champskees

Love your solution (it is brilliant) and am currently incorporating it into my map. 

I think there are a few conditions that will never be reached and can be removed to tidy things up a bit. 
 

- If gold >= 10: Pay for arrow (-10 Gold Pieces).
- If gold < 10: Lose all food

I think you always have at least 12 gold when reaching the Silversmith, so this can be trimmed from two branches to one. 

If gold >= 5 or you possess a Silver Flute:

I think you will never have both less than five gold and the silver flute. 
So this could be shortened to just:
If Gold>=5. 

Get tattoo (pawn Silver Flute & Eye Patch for 6 Gold Pieces if short on funds)(pawn Knucklebones for 1 Gold Piece if short on funds).

I think you always have enough funds here so all the pawning business can be removed. 

[scouserob]

Oct 14, 2013 10:21:03 GMT champskees said:

- Continue east into Stable Street.
- If gold >= 7: Pay for potion (-2 Gold Pieces, +1 Luck & restore 3 Stamina).

I think you can always pay for the potion here.

If you lose all your gold and miss the Bay's Ball then you'll have 2 gold left (10 Flower, 2 Goblin, -10 Arrow) at this point.
You can spend this on the potion and then get enough cash from vagabonds/tax collecting to to get the tattoo.

The the Gold>=5 branch point can then be rewritten as Gold>0.

I'm enjoying this gold management side of the game.

[johnbrawn1972]

City Of Thieves requires 10-14-7 boosted to 10(+1 attack strength)-14-8
-Tell him you wish to be taken to Nicodemus
-Allow yourself to be taken away
-If you would rather ignore the old man
-If you wish to feign illness and throw the iron pail against the bars of the cell
-If you wish to continue with your feigned illness
- 2gp. Merchant’s pass
32gp
-Head north along Market Street
-If you would rather continue walking north up Market Street
-If you would rather continue north
- 1st Thief sk7 st7 2nd Thief sk8 st6(use luck every round)
14st-12st 1L
- 16gp. If you would rather just take the gold and press on northwards
48gp
-If you wish to approach the front door
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=-1 stamina. Wolf sk5 st5. Iron key. +1 luck
12st-11st 0L-1L
-If you have an iron key=ok. If you do not, you may either try to force the door open. 2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=*
-Search the room you are in
-Pick up goblet B
- 12gp. You may either walk through the archway
60gp
-If you wish to try to pick the lock(use Potion of Fortune)
8L
- 2d6 twice <=luck=ok >luck=once=-2 stamina. If you are still alive >luck=twice=-4 stamina. -1 skill. If you are still alive
9S 11st-7st 6L
- +1 luck. 25gp. Shield +1 attack strength. Or leave the house to head north
9(+1)S 85gp 7L
-* -1gp
84gp
-If you would rather walk past him
-If you would rather walk on
- -1gp Iron Spike, -3gp Lantern
80gp
-If you would rather continue north
-If you would rather press on ahead
-If you wish to climb down the steps
-If you wish to turn east down Candle Street
-If you would rather continue east
-If you would rather ignore the argument and continue east
-If you wish to climb over the wall
-If you wish to ask to join in their game
- 2d6 <=skill=8gp. Potion of Mind Control. Silver flute. Piece of chalk. Eye-patch >skill=Silver Goblet and Iron Spike
7st/7st-9st 80gp/88gp
-If you wish to toss a Gold Piece into his tin
- -1gp. +1 luck
79gp/87gp 8L
-If you would rather continue along Harbour Street
-If you would rather hide out of sight behind a barrel and watch the carriage pass by
-If you wish to walk down the jetty to climb on board the ship
-If you wish to board the ship by climbing the rope ladder
-If you wish to creep along the deck to the stairs
-If you wish to open the door on the left
-If you wish to creep up and try to cut it loose
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=1st Pirate sk6 st6 2nd Pirate sk5 st4 3rd Pirate sk7 st4
7L
-six black pearls. +2 luck. You may open the other door
8L
-If you wish to hide behind the door
-If you wish to surprise him
-Or leave the ship
-If you wish to continue north up Harbour Street
-If you wish to stop to talk with the women
-If you would rather walk on
-If you wish to continue east
-If you wish to enter the shop
-Talk to the silversmith
-If you can afford his asking price
- -10gp. silver arrow
69gp/77gp
-If you wish to continue east into Stable Street
-If you wish to pay for a drink
- -2gp. +3 stamina. +1 luck
9/10 meals 7st-10st-14st/9st-12st 67gp/75gp
-If you wish to lift the manhole cover to see where it leads to
-If you wish to climb down the ladder
-If you wish to walk north along the tunnel
-1st Rat sk4 st4 2nd Rat sk5 st4 3rd Rat sk5 st5
-If you wish to continue further north along the tunnel
-If you have this item=ok. If you do not=2d6 <=luck=Hag sk7 st7 >luck=start again
7L/8L
-Hag’s hair
-Back at the entrance hole you may either climb up the ladder to the street in order to continue east
-If you wish to walk back to the junction and turn right into Tower Street
-If you would rather avoid the brawling man and continue north
-If you wish to walk under the bridge and continue east
-If you wish to walk through the barn doors
-Make conversation with the blacksmith
-If you wish to pay 20 Gold Pieces for a chainmail coat
- -20gp. +2 skill
10(+1)S 47gp/55gp
-If you want to hand him over to the town guards
- 5gp
52gp/60gp
-If you wish to go into the gardens
- -1gp. If you wish to risk picking one of the flowers
51gp/59gp
-Lotus flower. If not
-Leaf Beasts sk6 st6
-If you wish to walk down the lane
-If you can afford his high price
- -10gp. Unicorn tattoo
41gp/49gp
-If you wish to risk walking past the Trolls
-If you have a merchant’s pass
-If you wish to answer ‘No’
-If you wish to let them throw you out of the city
-If you have them all and have been tattooed
- +2 stamina. 1d6 creature(5=Ape Man=Owl Talisman)
12st-14st
-1st Moon Dog sk9 st10 2nd Moon Dog sk11 st9(use 1 luck for extra damage and if successful and luck=7 use 1 luck for extra damage)
6/7 meals 14st-12st-4st-14st 6L
-Otherwise you may pull on a cord hanging down in front of the door
-If you wish to tell him you are a lost traveller
-If you wish to explore the tower after waiting a few minutes
-If you wish to climb up to the third floor
-If you wish to climb to the next floor
-Open the white door
-If you want to open the sarcophagus
-If you have a Lantern, you may throw it at the Mummy
-If you wish to inspect the open sarcophagus
-Ring of the Golden Eye. +2 luck
8L
-Outside on the landing you may either enter the black door
-Walk over to the chest
-If you are wearing the Ring of The Golden Eye
-1st Skeleton sk6 st7 2nd Skeleton sk8 st6 3rd Skeleton sk7 st7
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=start again
7L
-Lotus flower and Hag’s hair

[scouserob]

Hi JohnBrawn
I'm intrigued by the idea of trying Market Street (rather than Clock Street) for the attack strength boosting item.
It seems that the whole plan hinges on getting into the Set-Back house for the shield.

If you have to force the door with a Test of Skill and fail then you miss out of the Shield and its Attack Strength boost and the whole plan is a complete failure.

I think your idea is to lose as many luck points as possible to fail the luck test when approaching the door so that the Wolf's chain snaps, you kill it, then you find the key.

Unfortunately you may only lose 4 luck points against the two Thieves which would leave you with 3-8 Luck and a chance of passing the Luck Test and having to force the door.

Surely, for this plan, drinking the Potion of Misfortune that the Thieves have is a must. (Down to 0-5 Luck for the test.)
Perhaps even taking on the Goblins in the Spotted dog and wasting 4 Luck Points on them if your Initial Luck is greater than 8 to ensure you ALWAYS get the key?

It seems a risky route:
You get an extra two fights against a Skill 7 and Skill 8 opponent with no chance to rest in between.
During those fights you are potentially prolonging things by using your, purposefully low, Luck to probably do half damage. 
You could lose 1 Skill for the dart traps in the chest, which would put you at a disadvantage for Bays' Ball, the Rats, possibly the Pirates and possibly the Hag.

As far as I can see the advantages are that you miss the Skill 5 Mad Man fight and won't get robbed of all your gold which would lead to:
Losing 2 Provisions trading for the Golden Flower.
Possibly losing 2 Provisions at Bays' Ball.
Fighting the Wild Dogs (Both Skill 4).
Possibly fighting a Skill 5 Goblin.
Possibly fighting 3 Vagabonds with Skill 7, 6 and 5.

[scouserob]

As requested by JohnBrawn, I'm going to code up Champskees‘ solution and compare it with JohnBrawn's fantastically bonkers Luck Loss on Market Street strategy.

I'm doing Champskees first and have just reached the part where we leave Port Blacksand.
I thought it would be interesting to show the probabilities for leaving with your life intact.

As you'd expect the Attack Strength bonus from the Winged Helmet allows you to defeat, in battle, all the enemies you must fight in Port Blacksand itself with ease.

The biggest risk of death is by failing both the Bays' Ball Skill Test and then the subsequent Luck Test at the Hag.
This can be seen by the probabilities being pretty constant in the columns of each Skill box.

With a either a Skill of 12 or a Luck of 11+ (taking the Potion of Fortune before the Hag Luck Test if you must face it) you will never be insta-killed by the Hag and so will be pretty much invincible in the Port Blacksand portion of the book. 

[Assuming I haven't made an error in the coding.]

[sylas]

Unless i'm mistaken, johnbrawn's strategy assumes the chainmail bonus goes over your Skill limit.

[scouserob]

Feb 19, 2023 1:41:03 GMT sylas said:

Unless i'm mistaken, johnbrawn's strategy assumes the chainmail bonus goes over your Skill limit.

I assumed his purchase of the Chainmail was to mitigate the potential Skill loss from the Dart Trap. 🎯

Edit: Reading through his solution it is clear to me now that this is the case and there is no intention on JohnBrawn’s part of the Chainmail boosting Skill above its initial value.

[scouserob]

Here is what I get when following Champskees' solution with what seems to be an optimal constant Provision buffer of 4.
Next up JohnBrawn's Luck Loss on Market Street strategy...

[I've gone through the code a few times but there is still a chance that bugs will remain.]
[Edit: Added the rule that if your Initial Luck has been raised to 13 then you can use Luck three times in battle against the 2nd Moon Dog.]

[scouserob]

Here are the probabilities for JohnBrawn's Luck loss on Market Street strategy.
As with Champskees' solution, 4 is the optimal value for the constant Provision buffer.
Though in both solutions I coded it so that you use enough Provisions to get back up to your Initial Stamina before both the Moon Dogs and the Skeletons.

I tested the following and implemented where better:
Drinking the Potion of Misfortune from the Thieves. (Always a better or an equal percentage to within 1 decimal place.)
Fighting the Death Hawks and getting healed for 6 Stamina. (Always a better or an equal percentage to within 1 decimal place.)
Fighting the Goblins in the Spotted Dog for extra Luck loss.  (Always a worse or an equal percentage to within 1 decimal place.)

I love this strategy and though it is never better than Champskees' solution it is, pretty much, just as good for high Skill adventurers.
I'm definitely going to give it a try. 😀
It'll be odd (and fun) hoping to fail Luck tests both in battle against the Thieves and when the Wolf is trying to attack you. 😂

Here are the probabilities.

[Assuming I haven't made an error in the coding.]




I went on an adventure down Market Street this evening.
I rolled a Skill 10 Stamina 18 Luck 11 adventurer.
I was only down to 4 Luck after the Thieves and their potion, but fortunately/unfortunately the Wolf’s 🐺 chain snapped and so I found the Iron Key 🔑, dodged both Darts 🎯, opened the chest and equipped the Attack Strength boosting Shield 🛡️.
(A successful bit of burglary. 😬)
I became a hero of Bays’ Ball ⚾️ then collected or bought everything required to fight old Zanbar Bone 💀.
Had a nervous battle against the Moon Dogs as the first knocked me down to 10 Stamina before the Luck advantage allowed me to rain heavy blows down on the second one, finishing it off with only 4 of my Stamina remaining.
After a Henry VIII style banquet 🍗 🍖 🍲 🥖 and the contemplation of a future filled with the pain of gout, it was plain sailing up through Zanbar’s tower to victory.
Great fun.
Thanks JohnBrawn. 😀👍🏻

[CharlesX]

Nov 20, 2014 22:29:19 GMT johnbrawn1972 said:

I have managed to win COT with 10/14/8 but if anyone has managed to win with 9/14/8 they must have loaded dice even with the +1 attack strength helmet. I have visions of 30 attempts to make it to the final luck test and then rolling a 9.

As to the above post I believe the consensus was it is ok to lose all your gold but if you miss the ball and lose out completely you might as well start again for the very reason you assert.

Nobody has ever won COT with 7/14/8 or 8/14/8 stats surely?

I don't disbelieve Champskees solution odds above which puts the chances of a 9 14 8 Avatar at very roughly 27%, 1.5% above the odds of a maximum Avatar winning Trial Of Champions and imho more "a bit hard" than "mission impossible".

   An 8 14 8 Avatar has odds of success at very roughly 4.5% which is deeply hard and very much up there with the very tough FFs such as Masks Of Mayhem and Sky Lord. A 7 14 8 Avatar has .4% odds of winning compared with Crypt Of The Sorceror (with max stats) on .5% and a 7 14 7 Avatar has odds of success comparable to Spellbreaker with both the ordinary outrageous difficulty level and the bonkers uncorrected fight you have to be losing (.3%).

   I have sometimes played FFs with stats lower than those recommended, I've found that if they are close or within breathing distance I am sometimes able to win but if they are well below it is really best to try again with better stats. I tried Trial Of Champions once or twice after rolling Skill 10 Avatars with high Luck and Stamina - I was once ridiculously lucky to get as far as the Fire Demon but inevitably died in the fight. Constantly knowing I wouldn't have enough Stamina for the gamebook I was wanting a miracle which never came (expectedly).

[scouserob]

Apr 14, 2023 17:48:38 GMT CharlesX said:

I don't disbelieve Champskees solution odds above which puts the chances of a 9 14 8 Avatar at very roughly 27%.

An 8 14 8 Avatar has odds of success at very roughly 4.5%

A 7 14 8 Avatar has .4% odds of winning.

You may have transposed rows as I think Champskees has 8 14 8 at 6.1%.

To blow my own 🎺 a little, I think my little tweaks to the luck in battle strategy and provision use squeezed out a few more percentage points to the following rounded to 1 decimal place.

9 14 8: 30.5% (Win one in every 3.25 attempts.)
8 14 8: 7.4% (Win one in every 13.5 attempts.)
7 14 8: 0.5% (Win one in every 200 attempts.)

City of Thieves’ difficulty is pitched so that even the worst rolled adventurer can complete the Port Blacksand portion of the story over 80% of the time.
For that reason I’d probably have a go with a 7 14 7, knowing that I’ll end up torn to pieces by those Moon Dogs.
(Though for my second consecutive attempt I’d probably want at least a 20-25% chance.)

(With all the usual caveats about bugs in my code giving bad percentages, etc.)

[CharlesX]

Apr 14, 2023 18:30:22 GMT scouserob said:

Apr 14, 2023 17:48:38 GMT CharlesX said:

I don't disbelieve Champskees solution odds above which puts the chances of a 9 14 8 Avatar at very roughly 27%.

An 8 14 8 Avatar has odds of success at very roughly 4.5%

A 7 14 8 Avatar has .4% odds of winning.

You may have transposed rows as I think Champskees has 8 14 8 at 6.1%.

To blow my own 🎺 a little, I think my little tweaks to the luck in battle strategy and provision use squeezed out a few more percentage points to the following rounded to 1 decimal place.

9 14 8: 30.5% (Win one in every 3.25 attempts.)
8 14 8: 7.4% (Win one in every 13.5 attempts.)
7 14 8: 0.5% (Win one in every 200 attempts.)

City of Thieves’ difficulty is pitched so that even the worst rolled adventurer can complete the Port Blacksand portion of the story over 80% of the time.
For that reason I’d probably have a go with a 7 14 7, knowing that I’ll end up torn to pieces by those Moon Dogs.
(Though for my second consecutive attempt I’d probably want at least a 20-25% chance.)

(With all the usual caveats about bugs in my code giving bad percentages, etc.)

I get what Livingstone is doing when a weaker character is able to make it through the early portion of the game but it is irritating to know a minimum\near-minimum stats might well make it through part one of the gamebook only to die near the end via Black Lion (Island Of The Lizard King) Zagor (Return To Firetop Mountain) and so on, I think in a way I prefer the Giant Sandworm in Temple Of Terror which sets the tone for the whole gamebook.

   I'm not sure either what Livingstone was doing in Eye Of The Dragon having quite a few enemies with Skill 4 or lower and enemies with Skill 12 plus in the same gamebook, which is rather ripe for pastiche (like his ridiculous loop in Forest Of Doom). Sharcle might as well be a Jib-Jib for the threat he poses and maybe even deserves his own meme for anticlimax (if he doesn't have one).

[marblefigure]

Such a pity about the moon dogs... They make it unwinnable for weaker player characters. They stick out like a sore thumb.

[Peter]

Apr 22, 2023 11:31:30 GMT marblefigure said:

Such a pity about the moon dogs... They make it unwinnable for weaker player characters. They stick out like a sore thumb.

For sure. It would be better to re-shuffle the Moon Dogs' Skill and Stamina scores so that neither has a Skill of 11. That is the One Thing I Would Change in this book.

[scouserob]

Taking my cue from CharlesX in the solution thread for The Warlock of Firetop Mountain:
I get the percentage chance of winning City of Thieves, pre-rolling for your Initial Skill, Stamina and Luck, to be:
57.4% 
[Edited to account for the non-uniform Initial Stamina Distribution]

[CharlesX]

57.3% success rate is higher than I might expect (not doubting the calculation) because my adventurers tended to die from the Moon Dogs. I guess its because that and a couple of Luck tests are the only very hard points in the gamebook where stereotypically hard FF (about half of them) have multiple hard fights and tests and no attack strength bonus.

   It's kind of skewered in favour of adventurers with average or better-than-average stats. Contrary to "an adventurer with even very low stats should be able to make it through without too much trouble" or some variation of that, a Skill 7 Adventurer should roll up again unless they don't mind a 90%+ chance of dying.