9) Caverns of the Snow Witch Solution

[scouserob]

Caverns of the Snow Witch Attempted Optimisation
Part 2 The Potion of Fortune

I’ve split up the analysis into the best parameter set for each Potion choice.
First up is the Potion of Fortune.

I have at least found a local maximum for the percentages as tweaking each parameter now results in either a lower or practically equal (Within 0.3%) probability of success.

The best parameter choices that I've found when choosing the Potion of Fortune are as follows:

Provision Buffer:
If Initial Stamina ≤ 18 then Provision Buffer = 6
If Initial Stamina ≥ 19 then Provision Buffer = 8

Potion of Fortune Use
If Initial Skill – Initial Luck < 2 then Use before Werewolf
If Initial Skill = 12, Initial Luck = 10 and initial Stamina = 14 or 16 then Use before Werewolf
Otherwise Use before Hill Trolls

Mammoth or Snow Wolves:
If 2 * (Initial Skill) – Initial Luck ≥ 15 then fight the Mammoth
Otherwise fight the Snow Wolves

Take or Leave the Weapons in the Hut
Leaving the weapons is always best.

The Ice Cavern Strategy
Getting the Cloak and then Running if Unlucky is always best.

Attack or Run from the Frost Giant
Attacking the Frost Giant is always best

After Redswift’s Burial Go East or South
Going East to the Herbalist and Ash is always best.

Here are the comparisons when tweaking one parameter whilst leaving the others at optimal.

[johnbrawn1972]

Dec 7, 2022 15:51:48 GMT scouserob said:

Caverns of the Snow Witch Attempted Optimisation
Part 2 The Potion of Fortune

In the spirit of a post I sent to Champskees in Yorkshirean I am now having a rate sulk.

It is boggling to deal with this kind of application of a system.

I am wondering if I can find an intuition to create maybe a 97% chance of success with 12/24/12. I have been trying to find this for some time.

In the spirit of an old post I will now swallow some glass and drink some paraquat.

[scouserob]

😂
97% would be damn good, but I wouldn’t bet too heavily against it on your past form.

I’ve managed to get it over 94% with the Potion of Strength optimisations I’m working on.
That is with a 3 parameter Provision/Potion strategy and the usual assumption that my code is correct.

The three parameters I’m using are:
Provision Buffer.
Potion of Strength Minimum Stamina with Provisions Left.
Potion of Strength Minimum Stamina with No Provisions Left.
(Not sure yet whether a Minimum or a Buffer is best with the Potion of Strength.)

A more situational strategy for these may work though altering it to, say, getting up to maximum possible Stamina before the Bird-Man or Yeti doesn’t seem to improve things.

[scouserob]

Optimising the Potion of Strength parameters is taking some time.
I'm there for Skill 12 now, which only leaves Skill 11 and the upper reaches of Skill 10.

A few observations that you may find interesting with the Potion of Strength:

Going South past the Night Crawler's cave is significantly better than going East to the Herbalist and Ash. 
(Contrast with the Potion of Fortune where East was always better.)
For a Skill 12 Stamina 24 Luck 7, Potion of Strength, Adventurer:  South 80.4%, East 16.5%.

I guess not being able to replenish your luck can make that river crossing with Ash extremely perilous.

I'm also guessing that Champskees must have overlooked this Southward path as whilst my probabilities are in the same ball park with the Potion of Fortune strategies, the Potion of Strength strategies with a Luck of 7 have about double the survival rate.

For Skill 12 Stamina 18 Luck 7, I get 51.4% going South with the Potion of Strength.
Champskees gets 24.8% going East with the Potion of Fortune.

The highest survival probability I have managed for the best of the best, Skill 12 Stamina 24 Luck 12, is 94.70%.

[johnbrawn1972]

Dec 9, 2022 11:00:00 GMT scouserob said:

Optimising the Potion of Strength parameters is taking some time.
I'm there for Skill 12 now, which only leaves Skill 11 and the upper reaches of Skill 10.

A few observations that you may find interesting with the Potion of Strength:

Going South past the Night Crawler's cave is significantly better than going East to the Herbalist and Ash. 
(Contrast with the Potion of Fortune where East was always better.)
For a Skill 12 Stamina 24 Luck 7, Potion of Strength, Adventurer:  East 80.4%, South 16.5%.

I guess not being able to replenish your luck can make that river crossing with Ash extremely perilous.

I'm also guessing that Champskees must have overlooked this Southward path as whilst my probabilities are in the same ball park with the Potion of Fortune strategies, the Potion of Strength strategies with a Luck of 7 have about double the survival rate.

For Skill 12 Stamina 18 Luck 7, I get 51.4% going South with the Potion of Strength.
Champskees gets 24.8% going East with the Potion of Fortune.

The highest survival probability I have managed for the best of the best, Skill 12 Stamina 24 Luck 12, is 94.70%.

This is brilliant but are the figures right for the idea of going south rather than east. The figures, prima facie, seem to say you have an 80.4% chance if you go east and only a 16.5% chance if you go south. As I mentioned in an earlier post with a high stamina the stamina loss route seems very rational.

[scouserob]

Dec 9, 2022 13:13:36 GMT johnbrawn1972 said:

This is brilliant but are the figures right for the idea of going south rather than east. The figures, prima facie, seem to say you have an 80.4% chance if you go east and only a 16.5% chance if you go south. As I mentioned in an earlier post with a high stamina the stamina loss route seems very rational.

Thanks JohnBrawn 😀👍🏼

You are correct, I swapped around my East and my South in that sentence. 🤦🏻‍♂️
(And contradicted my previous sentence of South always being better with the Potion of Strength.)
It is 16.5% East and 80.4% South.

I've edited the post. 🥷

[scouserob]

Caverns of the Snow Witch Attempted Optimisation
Part 3 The Potion of Strength and The Solution

The Potion of Strength proves to be the best choice except for a little range with Skill 12, High Luck, Low Stamina.

The best parameter choices that I've found when choosing the Potion of Strength are as follows:

Provision Buffer:
Complicated, the best I've found is the following provision buffers for Initial Skill, Stamina and Luck values of:
8: Skill 12, Stamina 24 or (Stamina 23 and Luck >9)
4: Skill 12, 2 * Stamina + Luck < 38
6: Skill 12 Otherwise
4: Skill 11, 2 * Stamina - Luck ≥ 28
2: Skill 11 Otherwise
4: Skill 10, Stamina - Luck ≥ 10
2: Skill 10 Otherwise

Potion of Strength Use
Minimum Stamina Left to Take It with Provisions Remaining:
4: Initial Skill 12, Initial Stamina ≥ 20
2: Otherwise

Minimum Stamina Left to Take it with No Provisions Remaining:
8: Initial Skill 12, Initial Stamina > 20 and Initial Stamina + Initial Luck > 30.
6: Otherwise

Mammoth or Snow Wolves:
Details in the picture below but:
Skill 12 High Luck or Skill 10: Snow Wolves
Skill 12 Low Luck or Skill 11: Mammoth


Take or Leave the Weapons in the Hut
Leaving the weapons is always best.

The Ice Cavern Strategy
Strange business.
Just Run is best for Skill 12, Stamina ≥ 22, Luck ≥ 10
Cloak/Run is best for the rest of Skill 12.
Just Fight is best for Skill 11. 🤯
Just Run is best for Skill 10.


Attack or Run from the Frost Giant
Attacking the Frost Giant is always best 

After Redswift’s Burial Go East or South
Going South past the Night Stalker's cave is always best with the Potion of Strength.

Here are the parameter choices I used for each set of Initial Stats.  The bordered off section in the top left of Skill 12 is where the Potion of Fortune is best.


And here are the corresponding probabilities of success:

Probability Edits:
Corrected simultaneous opponent rules: Roll one attack strength per opponent.

[johnbrawn1972]

I am going to be a bit forward but I was hoping my solution for 12/14/7 might reach about 50% chance of success. Am I missing something? I have used the matrix for an average of stamina loss for each encounter which, I admit, does not factor in outlier figures which send you spiralling off in some, possibly doomed, direction. This is why I hoped about 50% might be plausible. Is it because I do not have access to Python(always thought it was something to do with dead parrots) to systematise my intuition?

[scouserob]

Dec 15, 2022 15:02:37 GMT johnbrawn1972 said:

I am going to be a bit forward but I was hoping my solution for 12/14/7 might reach about 50% chance of success. Am I missing something?

I can run it through my code and hopefully come up with an answer, and debug my code at the same time.
Checking your post on the first page are these your parameters?

Potion of Fortune: Use before Hill Trolls
Provision Buffer: 4
Mammoth
Take the Weapons in the Hut (!!!!)
The Ice Cavern Strategy: Just Run
Attack the Frost Giant
After Redswift’s Burial Go East

If so then I get the probability of success to be 8.9%
[Edit: I ran 12,12,7 instead of 12,14,7. 🤦🏻‍♂️]

[johnbrawn1972]

Dec 15, 2022 15:28:30 GMT scouserob said:

Dec 15, 2022 15:02:37 GMT johnbrawn1972 said:

I am going to be a bit forward but I was hoping my solution for 12/14/7 might reach about 50% chance of success. Am I missing something?

I can run it through my code and hopefully come up with an answer, and debug my code at the same time.
Checking your post on the first page are these your parameters?

Potion of Fortune: Use before Hill Trolls
Provision Buffer: 4
Mammoth
Take the Weapons in the Hut (!!!!)
The Ice Cavern Strategy: Just Run
Attack the Frost Giant
After Redswift’s Burial Go East

If so then I get the probability of success to be 7.0%
Here are some waypoints for getting past:
Yeti: 88.2%, Crystal Warrior 69.0%, Out of Caverns 45.4%, Bird Man 35.4%, All Hill Trolls 19.5%, River Crossing 13.3%, Barbarian 10.9%

I think I do not understand the difference between the matrix and the iterations(10,000 or 100,000?) that factor into a mathematical system.

I am not sure of the mathematics here but are not all the fights independent of one another(this feels like an old post with Champskees)?(so the fights are not 'cumulative') Sylas helpfully said a +2 attack strength advantage is crushing and you have this over the Mammoth?

I am also not sure of the provision buffer as I try to go with the average as generated by the matrix and this results in a complex strategy?

For instance it is fairly likely you will fight the skill 12 Bird-Man with your skill also at 12 so this would be a one for one attrition resulting in on average an 8 stamina loss and so this is unlikely to be fatal. Likewise with the erm Chaos Warrior(?) you have a +1 attack strength advantage so how is this likely to be fatal? It must be something to do with me using an average while you are using an iteration system that identifies outlier possibilities.

If you play a gamebook 200 times in 50 years are outliers a rational strategy when they unlikely to be realised?

Here what are the odds for instance of rolling a 1 or 2 followed by a double 6 erm 1/3*1/36? That seems to me to be an outlier possibility not often realised in reality?

Also what are odds of passing the fatal luck rolls with a 72% chance of success followed by a 58% chance of success? Prima facie both rolls are on your side?

[scouserob]

Hi JohnBrawn

I don’t use iterations like Champskees and Pip.
I try to track all the probabilities through a 5 dimensional array.

Imagine a block of flats with a 12 by 12 grid of rooms on each floor and 24 floors plus the ground floor.

Each floor corresponds to a Stamina value and each row of rooms East/West corresponds to a Skill value whilst each column of North/South rooms corresponds to a Luck Value.

Now imagine 11 of these flats in a row. These correspond to the number of provisions.
(These row of flats can be copied into columns for Tags such as has the Elfin boots.)

At the start of the adventure the number 1 or (100%) for your adventurer is placed into room 12 E/W, 7 N/S on the 14th floor of the block of flats at the end of the row. (12,7,14,10)

Now if say from this point you had a Luck Test which if failed costs you 3 Stamina then the probability in the above room would be emptied out and split between the following rooms
(12,6,14,10) = 21/36
(12,6,11,10) = 15/36

And so on.
At the end of the adventure every room that is above the ground floors is totalled up for the survival rate.

If the code is correct then this will give better results than iterations.
(Though as the number of iterations increase they should converge.)

I’m assuming the iteration method is to put 1000s of adventures through the coded up adventure and count the proportion of survivors.

I’ll attempt to answer your questions later…

[johnbrawn1972]

Dec 15, 2022 16:54:12 GMT scouserob said:

Hi JohnBrawn

I don’t use iterations like Champskees and Pip.
I try to track all the probabilities through a 5 dimensional array.

Imagine a block of flats with a 12 by 12 grid of rooms on each floor and 24 floors plus the ground floor.

Each floor corresponds to a Stamina value and each room East/West corresponds to a Skill value whilst each North/South room corresponds to a Luck Value.

Now imagine 11 of these flats in a row. These correspond to the number of provisions.
(These row of flats can be copied into columns for Tags such as has the Elfin boots.)

At the start of the adventure the number 1 or (100%) for your adventurer is placed into room 12 E/W, 7 N/S on the 14th floor of the block of flats at the end of the row. (12,7,14,10)

Now if say from this point you had a Luck Test which if failed costs you 3 Stamina then the probability in the above room would be emptied out and split between the following rooms
(12,6,14,10) = 21/36
(12,6,11,10) = 15/36

And so on.
At the end of the adventure every room that is above the ground floors is totalled up for the survival rate.

If the code is correct then this will give better results than iterations.
(Though as the number of iterations increase they should converge.)

The mathematics seems to be much more brutal than I ever realised. I think I do not understand why when it is probable you will win every fight that you end up with such a low probability overall. I suppose if one fight goes particularly badly it is very likely to generate a cascade effect you hint at above in your flat structure.

This book gives you many opportunities to recover yet I think what I have done is a straight down the line strategy that aggregates the averages into a general strategy. I suppose the flat system takes account in a totalised way rather than my aggregate of averages.

[scouserob]

Dec 15, 2022 16:30:57 GMT johnbrawn1972 said:

I am not sure of the mathematics here but are not all the fights independent of one another(this feels like an old post with Champskees)?(so the fights are not 'cumulative') Sylas helpfully said a +2 attack strength advantage is crushing and you have this over the Mammoth?

I think the things that do accumulate are deaths and Provision loss.
Rationing the effective 5/6 Provisions you have makes you enter many big fights at say 11 or 12 Stamina rather than 14 which hurts your chances.

For example giving you 100 Provisions and using one whenever you lose a single Stamina point ups the survival rate for your 12,14,7 adventurer from 8.9% to about 39.8%.

I have the chance of surviving the Mammoth with 12,14,7 at 98.0%

Dec 15, 2022 16:30:57 GMT johnbrawn1972 said:

I am also not sure of the provision buffer as I try to go with the average as generated by the matrix and this results in a complex strategy?

That is me being lazy and basically telling the code to eat provisions (when you get the chance) until your stamina is greater than your Initial Stamina minus the buffer.
For example if your Initial Stamina is 14, Current Stamina 4 and you get the chance to eat Provisions with a buffer of 4 then you will eat 2 provisions to get 12 Stamina which is above 14 - 4.
I imagine a more careful provision regime would improve things a little but customising it for the full range of starting stats seems a bit much for me.

Dec 15, 2022 16:30:57 GMT johnbrawn1972 said:

For instance it is fairly likely you will fight the skill 12 Bird-Man with your skill also at 12 so this would be a one for one attrition resulting in on average an 8 stamina loss and so this is unlikely to be fatal. Likewise with the erm Chaos Warrior(?) you have a +1 attack strength advantage so how is this likely to be fatal? It must be something to do with me using an average while you are using an iteration system that identifies outlier possibilities.

Agreed.
I get survival rates with full 12 Skill, Stamina 14 stats of 82.2% for the Crystal Warrior and 82.8% against the Bird-Man.
(Hand calculated so not using luck.)
But taken together surviving both is only about 68%.

Dec 15, 2022 16:30:57 GMT johnbrawn1972 said:

If you play a gamebook 200 times in 50 years are outliers a rational strategy when they unlikely to be realised?
Here what are the odds for instance of rolling a 1 or 2 followed by a double 6 erm 1/3*1/36? That seems to me to be an outlier possibility not often realised in reality?
Also what are odds of passing the fatal luck rolls with a 72% chance of success followed by a 58% chance of success? Prima facie both rolls are on your side?

The odds of rolling a 1 or 2 followed by a double 6 is 1/108, less than 1%, which won't have much effect on overall probabilities.
The odds of passing the fatal luck rolls with a boosted Luck of 8 is [1 - (10/36)(15/36)] which is about 88.4%.

[johnbrawn1972]

I have had a long think about this.

I love the flat structure as a kind of decision matrix so this should continue.

I think I will continue my 'mean average' system as a kind of complementary approach.

My last solutions tried to take advantage of the 'mean averages' especially Deathtrap Dungeon so I will keep doing this until I have a better idea. My fear is the flat structure will show my 12/14/7 Deathtrap Dungeon solution is very risky. I had tried to ensure you had a 72% chance of keeping your provisions and then use the provisions to give you a reasonable chance to exploit them. I beginning to wonder if you are better off taking a 58% chance of keeping your provisions. My idea was if you ignore 'outliers' you have a decent chance to exploit the endgame.

I think my problem is I am interpreting each encounter as a discrete encounter where afterwards you can top up with provisions to then have a fresh encounter. This is manifestly true but only to a degree. I think the flat structure interprets each encounter as a systematic risk and then these risks can be aggregated as in the flat system. I cannot 'see' this as I am only using 'intuition' with some help from the 'mean' averages which does inject some degree of reality as far as I can tell.

[johnbrawn1972]

This is yet another shout out to Rob. I have been trying to reach about 98% for Caverns of the Snow Witch. My new system is to use the Potion of Skill and the Rattlesnake route. My personal preference is to take 100 gold pieces or else I see little point. You might want to tighten up in strict achievement terms.

As far as I can tell with intuition only the 1/3 chance of losing a skill point has the potential to generate severe consequences. My idea is to take the Potion of Skill immediately as -4 stamina and -1 luck are easy to deal with. This 'blocks' the tiny 3 percent window perfectly. It is a boon the -1 skill penalty and Elfin Boots are on mutually exclusive paths as even if you lose the Potion of Skill at this early stage you are 'forced' to recover the skill point so the tiny 3 percent windows at the end are closed off.

My path is a little 'romantic' so anyone can make an amendment. If I recall 12/14/7 has a 98% chance of beating the Mammoth so I think the other probabilities, where you have 24 stamina, should generate 0.1% chances aggregated to create a failure matrix. I am hoping for 99% so ever the optimist.

[scouserob]

Hi JohnBrawn

A Potion of Skill strategy.
I never ever considered it, as usual.

I've got most of the code ready and don't have time at the moment to alter it to track whether you've taken the Potion of Skill after the casket or not.
What I've done instead is give you two bottles of the Potion of Skill to take both then and before heading south on the rattlesnake path.
(So you can kind of see this as an upper bound.)

I get your probability of survival with the two 2 Skill Potions at 63.75%.

The problem, I think, is the drain on Provisions.
Looking at the percentages they seem to be running out in most cases between the Bird Man and the South/East path fork, leaving each wound after that point unhealable.
By the time you reach the Sun Mask trial your survival rate is losing about 11.3% due to the adventurers clinging on with on going into it with 1-5 Stamina left.

SPOILER: Click to show

[johnbrawn1972]

Caverns of the Snow Witch. 12/14/7. Potion of Skill.. Underlined equals most likely.
-If you would rather walk around the crevasse
-Mammoth sk10 st11
14st-10st
-If you wish to use your sword to dig a shelter in the snow
- -2 provisions
8 meals
-If you wish to enter the hut
-If you wish to put some logs on the fire and warm up the cold stew in one of the pans
- +3 stamina
10st-13st
-If you wish to take a couple of them with you
- -1 stamina
13st-12st
-War-hammer. Spear
-If you are
-If not
- 1d6 1=Yeti sk11 st12
12st-6st
2-6=Yeti sk10 st9
12st-10st
-2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=2d6 <=skill=ok
6L
-If you wish to turn right
-If you wish to drink some of the liquid
- +3 stamina
8 meals 10st-13st
7 meals 6st-9st-13st
-Tell him you have come to join the Snow Witch’s followers
-If you would rather change your story and tell the Elf that you intend to slay her
-cloak
-If you wish to enter the crude kitchen
-If you would rather attack the Snow Witch’s followers
-Neanderthal sk7 st8
-If you wish to search through the cupboards and risk the Gnome returning with reinforcements
-Blow the flute
-silver flute. Read the runes on the stick
-rune-carved wooden stick. Read the book
- -4 stamina. You may open the book
13st-9st
-If you wish to put the chain around your neck
-Amulet of Courage +2 skill. Smell the rose
- +3 stamina. You may leave the cave and turn left into the tunnel
9st-12st
-If you are wearing a cloak
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=or try to run for the tunnel 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=odd=Demon sk9 st11. +1 luck even=-3 stamina
7/8 meals 12st 5L
7/8 meals 12st 4L
6/7 meals 12st-9st-13st 4L
6/7 meals 12st-10st-14st 5L
-If you wish to turn left
-If you wish to help the Dwarf out of the pit
-Sling and three iron balls
-or you may attack him with your sword
-Strike the man to your right
-If you wish to try to smash his prism
-Genie. Enter the tunnel with the skull mouth
-If you wish to attack him
-If you have a sling and wish to use it against the Frost Giant
- 2d6 <=skill=ok
-If you wish to try on any of the rings
-Put on the gold ring
-resist cold. +1 luck. Or the copper ring
6L
-warrior. +1 luck. You may walk through to the next tunnel
7L
-Chaos Warrior sk11 st13(if luck=7 use 1 luck for extra damage)
5/6/7 meals 12st/13st/14st-4st/5st/6st-8st/9st/10st 6L
-If you wish to go right
-If you wish to knock on the door
-If you wish to attack him
-Zombie sk6 st6
-jar of ground minotaur horn. garlic. four large dragon eggs
-If you possess any ground minotaur horn
-If you have some garlic
-If you possess a carved rune stick
-If your skill is higher than 10=ok
-Sentinel sk9 st9
-Take 100 Gold Pieces. Drop War-hammer. Drop Spear. If you wish to turn left
-If you wish to ignore Redswift’s advice and pick up the orb
-Keep hold of the orb
- +3 stamina. +1 luck
8st/9st/10st-11st/12st/13st 7L
- 1d6 1-2=-1 luck. -4 stamina. -1 skill(use Potion of Skill)3-4=ok 5-6=1d6 1-2=ok 3=4=ok 5-6=+1 luck. elfin boots
12S 4/5/6 meals 11st/12st/13st-7st/8st/9st-11st/12st/13st 6L
-Cave-man sk8 st8
-star-shaped metal disc
-If you are wearing an Amulet of Courage
-Brain Slayer sk10 st10(if stamina=2 and luck=7 use 1 luck to reduce damage)
11st/12st/13st-9st/10st/11st 6L
-Look inside the red pot
-square metal disc. If you now wish to look inside the grey pot
-If you wish to break the seal and read the scroll
- 2d6 <=skill=+1 luck >skill=-1 luck. Or leave the cavern by the door opposite
7L
-If you would rather open the door
- -3 provisions. +4 stamina. If have passed skill roll above=If you wish to go left otherwise If you wish to go right*
1/2/3/4 meals 9st/10st/11st-13st/14st/14st
-If you wish to take the shield
-If the words ‘Gul Sang Abi Daar’ mean anything to you
-shield +1 skill
-*If you have a shield=ok If you do not possess a shield=-4 stamina. -1 luck
-Fire an iron ball from your sling at the globe
- 2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=-1 luck. If it exceeds 10 in total=-1 skill. -4 stamina
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=If it exceeds 10 in total=-1 skill. -4 stamina
11S 14st-10st 6L
-Dwarf Zombie sk8 st9. Elf Zombie sk9 st9. same time
10st-8st
-If you have any small metal discs
-Conceal the square disc
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=-4 stamina
8st-4st 5L
-If you would rather walk on
-If you would rather wait for its owner to arrive
- +2 stamina. If you wish to drink the liquid
4st-6st
- +1 skill. +4 stamina. +1 luck
12S 6st-10st 6L
- +4 stamina
10st-14st
-If would rather ignore him and continue south
- 2d6 <=luck=Bird-Man sk12 st8 >luck=-2 stamina. Bird-Man sk12 st8
0/1/2 meals 14st-12st-4st-12st
0/1/2 meals 14st-6st -14st 5L
-If you would rather resist the temptation to drink
- -1 stamina
12st-11st
14st-13st
- +1 stamina
11st-12st
13st-14st
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=Werewolf sk8 st10
4L
- 1st Hill troll sk9 st10 2nd Hill Troll sk9 st9. same time
0/1 meal 12st-10st-14st
14st-12st
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=1st Hill Troll sk8 st9. 2nd Hill Troll sk9 st9. same time. +1 skill
3L
-If you drank the Potion of Health that belonged to the Dark Elf
- -1 skill. -1 stamina. If you would rather cross the river by the rope bridge ahead of you, and walk south along the base of the hills for a while(use Potion of Skill)
12S 14st-13st
12st-11st
- -1 stamina. If you would rather keep walking up the gorge
13st-12st
0/1 meal 11st-10st-14st
- 2d6 <=luck=ok 2d6 >luck=-4 stamina
12st/12st-8st
14st/14st-10st 2L
-If you wish to climb up the ladder to the tree-house
-Man-Orc sk8 st6
-candle and a tinder-box
-If you are wearing elfin boots=ok If you are wearing ordinary boots=Barbarian sk9 st8 Three silver arrows heads. If you wish to wear the armband +1 skill
12S 8st-6st/10st-8st/12st-10st/14st-12st
-If you wish to enter the cave
- -1d6 stamina
0st-8st
-If you possess a candle and tinder-box
- 2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=start again
-If you possess a dragon’s egg
-If you have drunk the dragon’s egg concoction
- 2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=Banshee sk12 st12 2d6 >skill=lose attack round
-If you possess any silver object(silver flute or silver arrow head)
-If you believe the bird to be a Phoenix

[johnbrawn1972]

Caverns of the Snow Witch. 12/24/12. Potion of Skill.
-If you would rather walk around the crevasse
-Mammoth sk10 st11
24st-20st
-If you wish to use your sword to dig a shelter in the snow
- -2 provisions
8 meals
-If you wish to enter the hut
-If you wish to put some logs on the fire and warm up the cold stew in one of the pans
- +3 stamina
20st-23st
-If you wish to take a couple of them with you
- -1 stamina
23st-22st
-War-hammer. Spear
-If you are
-If not
- 1d6 1=Yeti sk11 st12
22st-16st
2-6=Yeti sk10 st9
22st-20st
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=2d6 <=skill=ok
11L
-If you wish to turn right
-If you wish to drink some of the liquid
- +3 stamina
20st-23st
16st-19st
-Tell him you have come to join the Snow Witch’s followers
-If you would rather change your story and tell the Elf that you intend to slay her
-cloak
-If you wish to enter the crude kitchen
-If you would rather attack the Snow Witch’s servants
-Neanderthal sk7 st8
-If you wish to search through the cupboards and risk the Gnome returning with reinforcements
-Blow the flute
-silver flute. Read the runes on the stick
-rune-carved wooden stick. Read the book
- -4 stamina. You may open the book
23st-19st
19st-15st
-If you wish to put the chain around your neck
-Amulet of Courage +2 skill. Smell the rose
- +3 stamina. You may leave the cave and turn left into the tunnel
19st-22st
15st-18st
-If you are wearing a cloak
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=or try to run for the tunnel=2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=odd=Demon sk9 st11. +1 luck. even==3 stamina
22st 10L
18st 10L
22st 9L
18st 9L
-If you wish to turn left
-If you wish to help the Dwarf out of the pit
-Sling and three iron balls
-or you may attack him with your sword
-Strike the man to your right
-If you wish to try to smash his prism
-Genie. Enter the tunnel with the skull mouth
-If you wish to attack him
-If you have a sling and wish to use it against the Frost Giant
- 2d6 <=skill=ok
-If you wish to try on any of the rings
-Put on the gold ring
-resist cold. +1 luck. Or the copper ring
11L
-warrior. +1 luck. You may walk through to the next tunnel
12L
-Chaos Warrior sk11 st13(if luck=12 use 1 luck for extra damage)
22st-16st 11L
18st-12st 11L
22st-14st 11L
18st-10st 11L
-If you wish to go right
-If you wish to knock on the door
-If you wish to attack him
-Zombie sk6 st6
-jar of ground minotaur horn. garlic. four large dragon eggs
-If you possess any ground minotaur horn
-If you have some garlic
-If you possess a carved rune stick
-If your skill is higher than 10=ok If your skill is 10 or less=2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=start again
-Sentinel sk9 st9
-Take 100 Gold Pieces. Drop War-hammer. Drop Spear. If you wish to turn left
-If you wish to ignore Redswift’s advice and pick up the orb
-Keep hold of the orb
- +3 stamina. +1 luck
16st-19st
12st-15st
14st-17st
10st-13st 12L
- 1d6 1-2=-1 luck. -4 stamina. -1 skill(use Potion of Skill) 3-4=ok 5-6=1d6 1-2=ok 3=4=ok 5-6=+1 luck. elfin boots
8 meals 19st-15st
7 meals 15st-11st-15st
8 meals 17st-13st
7 meals 13st-9st-13st 11L
-Cave-man sk8 st8
-star-shaped metal disc
-If you are wearing an Amulet of Courage
-Brain Slayer sk10 st10(if luck=12 use 1 luck for extra damage)
8 meals 19st-17st
8 meals 15st-13st
7/8 meals 15st-13st
8 meals 17st-15st
8 meals 13st-11st
7/8 meals 13st-11st 11L
-Look inside the red pot
-square metal disc. If you now wish to look inside the grey pot
-If you wish to break the seal and read the scroll
- 2d6 <=skill=+1 luck >skill=-1 luck. Or leave the cavern by the door opposite
12L
-If you would rather open the door
- -3 provisions. +4 stamina. If you wish to go left
5 meals 17st-21st
5 meals 13st-17st
5 meals 13st-17st
5 meals 15st-19st
5 meals 11st-15st
4/5 meals 11st-15st
-If you wish to take the shield
-If the words ‘Gul Sang Abi Daar’ mean anything to you
-shield +1 skill
-If you have a shield=ok
-Fire an iron ball from your sling at the globe
- 2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=-1 luck. If it exceeds 10 in total=-1 skill. -4 stamina
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=If it exceeds 10 in total=-1 skill. -4 stamina
11L
-Dwarf Zombie sk8 st9. Elf Zombie sk9 st9. same time
-If you have any small metal discs
-Conceal the square disc
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=-4 stamina
10L
-If you would rather walk on
-If you would rather wait for its owner to arrive
- +2 stamina. If you wish to drink the liquid
14st-16st
- +1 skill. +4 stamina. +1 luck
16st-20st
11L
- +4 stamina
20st-24st
-If would rather ignore him and continue south
- 2d6 <=luck=Bird-Man sk12 st8(use 2 luck for extra damage) >luck=-2 stamina. Bird-Man sk12 st8(use 2 luck for extra damage)
3/4 meals 24st-20st-24st
3/4 meals 24st-22st-18st-22st 8L
-If you would rather resist the temptation to drink
- -1 stamina
24st-23st
22st-21st
- +1 stamina
23st-24st
21st-22st
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=Werewolf sk8 st10
7L
- 1st Hill troll sk9 st10 2nd Hill Troll sk9 st9 same time
24st-22st
2/3 meals 22st-20st-24st
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=1st Hill Troll sk8 st9. 2nd Hill Troll sk9 st9 same time. +1 skill
6L
-If you drank the Potion of Health that belonged to the Dark Elf
- -1 skill. -1 stamina. If you would rather cross the river by the rope bridge ahead of you, and walk south along the base of the hills for a while(use Potion of Skill)
22st-21st
24st-23st
- -1 stamina. If you would rather keep walking up the gorge
2/3 meals 21st-20st-24st
23st-22st
- 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=-4 stamina
24st/24st-20st
22st/22st-18st 5L
-If you wish to climb up the ladder to the tree-house
-Man-Orc sk8 st6
-candle and a tinder-box
-If you are wearing elfin boots=ok If you are wearing ordinary boots=Barbarian sk9 st8 Three silver arrows heads. If you wish to wear the armband +1 skill
12S 18st/20st/22st/24st-16st/18st/20st/22st
-If you wish to enter the cave
- -1d6 stamina
10st-18st
-If you possess a candle and tinder-box
- 2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=start again
-If you possess a dragon’s egg
-If you have drunk the dragon’s egg concoction
- 2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=Banshee sk12 st12 2d6 >skill=lose attack round
-If you possess any silver object(silver flute or silver arrow head)
-If you believe the bird to be a Phoenix

[scouserob]

Taking my cue from CharlesX in the solution thread for The Warlock of Firetop Mountain:
I get the percentage chance of winning Caverns of the Snow Witch, pre-rolling for your Initial Skill, Stamina and Luck, to be:
15.6%
[Edited to account for the non-uniform Initial Stamina Distribution]