
Post by scouserob on Dec 7, 2022 15:51:48 GMT
Caverns of the Snow Witch Attempted Optimisation Part 2 The Potion of Fortune
I’ve split up the analysis into the best parameter set for each Potion choice. First up is the Potion of Fortune.
I have at least found a local maximum for the percentages as tweaking each parameter now results in either a lower or practically equal (Within 0.3%) probability of success.
The best parameter choices that I've found when choosing the Potion of Fortune are as follows:
Provision Buffer: If Initial Stamina ≤ 18 then Provision Buffer = 6 If Initial Stamina ≥ 19 then Provision Buffer = 8
Potion of Fortune Use If Initial Skill – Initial Luck < 2 then Use before Werewolf If Initial Skill = 12, Initial Luck = 10 and initial Stamina = 14 or 16 then Use before Werewolf Otherwise Use before Hill Trolls
Mammoth or Snow Wolves: If 2 * (Initial Skill) – Initial Luck ≥ 15 then fight the Mammoth Otherwise fight the Snow Wolves
Take or Leave the Weapons in the Hut Leaving the weapons is always best.
The Ice Cavern Strategy Getting the Cloak and then Running if Unlucky is always best.
Attack or Run from the Frost Giant Attacking the Frost Giant is always best
After Redswift’s Burial Go East or South Going East to the Herbalist and Ash is always best.
Here are the comparisons when tweaking one parameter whilst leaving the others at optimal.



Post by johnbrawn1972 on Dec 7, 2022 16:52:26 GMT
Caverns of the Snow Witch Attempted Optimisation Part 2 The Potion of Fortune
In the spirit of a post I sent to Champskees in Yorkshirean I am now having a rate sulk. It is boggling to deal with this kind of application of a system. I am wondering if I can find an intuition to create maybe a 97% chance of success with 12/24/12. I have been trying to find this for some time. In the spirit of an old post I will now swallow some glass and drink some paraquat.



Post by scouserob on Dec 7, 2022 17:01:07 GMT
😂 97% would be damn good, but I wouldn’t bet too heavily against it on your past form.
I’ve managed to get it over 94% with the Potion of Strength optimisations I’m working on. That is with a 3 parameter Provision/Potion strategy and the usual assumption that my code is correct.
The three parameters I’m using are: Provision Buffer. Potion of Strength Minimum Stamina with Provisions Left. Potion of Strength Minimum Stamina with No Provisions Left. (Not sure yet whether a Minimum or a Buffer is best with the Potion of Strength.)
A more situational strategy for these may work though altering it to, say, getting up to maximum possible Stamina before the BirdMan or Yeti doesn’t seem to improve things.



Post by scouserob on Dec 9, 2022 11:00:00 GMT
Optimising the Potion of Strength parameters is taking some time. I'm there for Skill 12 now, which only leaves Skill 11 and the upper reaches of Skill 10.
A few observations that you may find interesting with the Potion of Strength:
Going South past the Night Crawler's cave is significantly better than going East to the Herbalist and Ash. (Contrast with the Potion of Fortune where East was always better.) For a Skill 12 Stamina 24 Luck 7, Potion of Strength, Adventurer: South 80.4%, East 16.5%.
I guess not being able to replenish your luck can make that river crossing with Ash extremely perilous.
I'm also guessing that Champskees must have overlooked this Southward path as whilst my probabilities are in the same ball park with the Potion of Fortune strategies, the Potion of Strength strategies with a Luck of 7 have about double the survival rate.
For Skill 12 Stamina 18 Luck 7, I get 51.4% going South with the Potion of Strength. Champskees gets 24.8% going East with the Potion of Fortune.
The highest survival probability I have managed for the best of the best, Skill 12 Stamina 24 Luck 12, is 94.70%.



Post by johnbrawn1972 on Dec 9, 2022 13:13:36 GMT
Optimising the Potion of Strength parameters is taking some time. I'm there for Skill 12 now, which only leaves Skill 11 and the upper reaches of Skill 10.
A few observations that you may find interesting with the Potion of Strength:
Going South past the Night Crawler's cave is significantly better than going East to the Herbalist and Ash. (Contrast with the Potion of Fortune where East was always better.) For a Skill 12 Stamina 24 Luck 7, Potion of Strength, Adventurer: East 80.4%, South 16.5%.
I guess not being able to replenish your luck can make that river crossing with Ash extremely perilous.
I'm also guessing that Champskees must have overlooked this Southward path as whilst my probabilities are in the same ball park with the Potion of Fortune strategies, the Potion of Strength strategies with a Luck of 7 have about double the survival rate.
For Skill 12 Stamina 18 Luck 7, I get 51.4% going South with the Potion of Strength. Champskees gets 24.8% going East with the Potion of Fortune.
The highest survival probability I have managed for the best of the best, Skill 12 Stamina 24 Luck 12, is 94.70%. This is brilliant but are the figures right for the idea of going south rather than east. The figures, prima facie, seem to say you have an 80.4% chance if you go east and only a 16.5% chance if you go south. As I mentioned in an earlier post with a high stamina the stamina loss route seems very rational.



Post by scouserob on Dec 9, 2022 13:18:05 GMT
This is brilliant but are the figures right for the idea of going south rather than east. The figures, prima facie, seem to say you have an 80.4% chance if you go east and only a 16.5% chance if you go south. As I mentioned in an earlier post with a high stamina the stamina loss route seems very rational. Thanks JohnBrawn 😀👍🏼
You are correct, I swapped around my East and my South in that sentence. 🤦🏻♂️ (And contradicted my previous sentence of South always being better with the Potion of Strength.) It is 16.5% East and 80.4% South.
I've edited the post. 🥷



Post by scouserob on Dec 11, 2022 15:06:07 GMT
Caverns of the Snow Witch Attempted Optimisation Part 3 The Potion of Strength and The Solution
The Potion of Strength proves to be the best choice except for a little range with Skill 12, High Luck, Low Stamina.
The best parameter choices that I've found when choosing the Potion of Strength are as follows:
Provision Buffer: Complicated, the best I've found is the following provision buffers for Initial Skill, Stamina and Luck values of: 8: Skill 12, Stamina 24 or (Stamina 23 and Luck >9) 4: Skill 12, 2 * Stamina + Luck < 38 6: Skill 12 Otherwise 4: Skill 11, 2 * Stamina  Luck ≥ 28 2: Skill 11 Otherwise 4: Skill 10, Stamina  Luck ≥ 10 2: Skill 10 Otherwise
Potion of Strength Use Minimum Stamina Left to Take It with Provisions Remaining: 4: Initial Skill 12, Initial Stamina ≥ 20 2: Otherwise
Minimum Stamina Left to Take it with No Provisions Remaining: 8: Initial Skill 12, Initial Stamina > 20 and Initial Stamina + Initial Luck > 30. 6: Otherwise
Mammoth or Snow Wolves: Details in the picture below but: Skill 12 High Luck or Skill 10: Snow Wolves Skill 12 Low Luck or Skill 11: Mammoth
Take or Leave the Weapons in the Hut Leaving the weapons is always best.
The Ice Cavern Strategy Strange business. Just Run is best for Skill 12, Stamina ≥ 22, Luck ≥ 10 Cloak/Run is best for the rest of Skill 12. Just Fight is best for Skill 11. 🤯 Just Run is best for Skill 10.
Attack or Run from the Frost Giant Attacking the Frost Giant is always best
After Redswift’s Burial Go East or South Going South past the Night Stalker's cave is always best with the Potion of Strength.
Here are the parameter choices I used for each set of Initial Stats. The bordered off section in the top left of Skill 12 is where the Potion of Fortune is best.
And here are the corresponding probabilities of success:



Post by johnbrawn1972 on Dec 15, 2022 15:02:37 GMT
I am going to be a bit forward but I was hoping my solution for 12/14/7 might reach about 50% chance of success. Am I missing something? I have used the matrix for an average of stamina loss for each encounter which, I admit, does not factor in outlier figures which send you spiralling off in some, possibly doomed, direction. This is why I hoped about 50% might be plausible. Is it because I do not have access to Python(always thought it was something to do with dead parrots) to systematise my intuition?



Post by scouserob on Dec 15, 2022 15:28:30 GMT
I am going to be a bit forward but I was hoping my solution for 12/14/7 might reach about 50% chance of success. Am I missing something? I can run it through my code and hopefully come up with an answer, and debug my code at the same time. Checking your post on the first page are these your parameters?
Potion of Fortune: Use before Hill Trolls Provision Buffer: 4 Mammoth Take the Weapons in the Hut (!!!!) The Ice Cavern Strategy: Just Run Attack the Frost Giant After Redswift’s Burial Go East
If so then I get the probability of success to be 8.9% [Edit: I ran 12,12,7 instead of 12,14,7. 🤦🏻♂️]



Post by johnbrawn1972 on Dec 15, 2022 16:30:57 GMT
I am going to be a bit forward but I was hoping my solution for 12/14/7 might reach about 50% chance of success. Am I missing something? I can run it through my code and hopefully come up with an answer, and debug my code at the same time. Checking your post on the first page are these your parameters?
Potion of Fortune: Use before Hill Trolls Provision Buffer: 4 Mammoth Take the Weapons in the Hut (!!!!) The Ice Cavern Strategy: Just Run Attack the Frost Giant After Redswift’s Burial Go East
If so then I get the probability of success to be 7.0% Here are some waypoints for getting past: Yeti: 88.2%, Crystal Warrior 69.0%, Out of Caverns 45.4%, Bird Man 35.4%, All Hill Trolls 19.5%, River Crossing 13.3%, Barbarian 10.9%I think I do not understand the difference between the matrix and the iterations(10,000 or 100,000?) that factor into a mathematical system. I am not sure of the mathematics here but are not all the fights independent of one another(this feels like an old post with Champskees)?(so the fights are not 'cumulative') Sylas helpfully said a +2 attack strength advantage is crushing and you have this over the Mammoth? I am also not sure of the provision buffer as I try to go with the average as generated by the matrix and this results in a complex strategy? For instance it is fairly likely you will fight the skill 12 BirdMan with your skill also at 12 so this would be a one for one attrition resulting in on average an 8 stamina loss and so this is unlikely to be fatal. Likewise with the erm Chaos Warrior(?) you have a +1 attack strength advantage so how is this likely to be fatal? It must be something to do with me using an average while you are using an iteration system that identifies outlier possibilities. If you play a gamebook 200 times in 50 years are outliers a rational strategy when they unlikely to be realised? Here what are the odds for instance of rolling a 1 or 2 followed by a double 6 erm 1/3*1/36? That seems to me to be an outlier possibility not often realised in reality? Also what are odds of passing the fatal luck rolls with a 72% chance of success followed by a 58% chance of success? Prima facie both rolls are on your side?



Post by scouserob on Dec 15, 2022 16:54:12 GMT
Hi JohnBrawn
I don’t use iterations like Champskees and Pip. I try to track all the probabilities through a 5 dimensional array.
Imagine a block of flats with a 12 by 12 grid of rooms on each floor and 24 floors plus the ground floor.
Each floor corresponds to a Stamina value and each row of rooms East/West corresponds to a Skill value whilst each column of North/South rooms corresponds to a Luck Value.
Now imagine 11 of these flats in a row. These correspond to the number of provisions. (These row of flats can be copied into columns for Tags such as has the Elfin boots.)
At the start of the adventure the number 1 or (100%) for your adventurer is placed into room 12 E/W, 7 N/S on the 14th floor of the block of flats at the end of the row. (12,7,14,10)
Now if say from this point you had a Luck Test which if failed costs you 3 Stamina then the probability in the above room would be emptied out and split between the following rooms (12,6,14,10) = 21/36 (12,6,11,10) = 15/36
And so on. At the end of the adventure every room that is above the ground floors is totalled up for the survival rate.
If the code is correct then this will give better results than iterations. (Though as the number of iterations increase they should converge.)
I’m assuming the iteration method is to put 1000s of adventures through the coded up adventure and count the proportion of survivors.
I’ll attempt to answer your questions later…



Post by johnbrawn1972 on Dec 15, 2022 17:10:06 GMT
Hi JohnBrawn I don’t use iterations like Champskees and Pip. I try to track all the probabilities through a 5 dimensional array. Imagine a block of flats with a 12 by 12 grid of rooms on each floor and 24 floors plus the ground floor. Each floor corresponds to a Stamina value and each room East/West corresponds to a Skill value whilst each North/South room corresponds to a Luck Value. Now imagine 11 of these flats in a row. These correspond to the number of provisions. (These row of flats can be copied into columns for Tags such as has the Elfin boots.) At the start of the adventure the number 1 or (100%) for your adventurer is placed into room 12 E/W, 7 N/S on the 14th floor of the block of flats at the end of the row. (12,7,14,10) Now if say from this point you had a Luck Test which if failed costs you 3 Stamina then the probability in the above room would be emptied out and split between the following rooms (12,6,14,10) = 21/36 (12,6,11,10) = 15/36 And so on. At the end of the adventure every room that is above the ground floors is totalled up for the survival rate. If the code is correct then this will give better results than iterations. (Though as the number of iterations increase they should converge.) The mathematics seems to be much more brutal than I ever realised. I think I do not understand why when it is probable you will win every fight that you end up with such a low probability overall. I suppose if one fight goes particularly badly it is very likely to generate a cascade effect you hint at above in your flat structure. This book gives you many opportunities to recover yet I think what I have done is a straight down the line strategy that aggregates the averages into a general strategy. I suppose the flat system takes account in a totalised way rather than my aggregate of averages.



Post by scouserob on Dec 15, 2022 19:11:52 GMT
I am not sure of the mathematics here but are not all the fights independent of one another(this feels like an old post with Champskees)?(so the fights are not 'cumulative') Sylas helpfully said a +2 attack strength advantage is crushing and you have this over the Mammoth? I think the things that do accumulate are deaths and Provision loss. Rationing the effective 5/6 Provisions you have makes you enter many big fights at say 11 or 12 Stamina rather than 14 which hurts your chances.
For example giving you 100 Provisions and using one whenever you lose a single Stamina point ups the survival rate for your 12,14,7 adventurer from 8.9% to about 39.8%.
I have the chance of surviving the Mammoth with 12,14,7 at 98.0%I am also not sure of the provision buffer as I try to go with the average as generated by the matrix and this results in a complex strategy? That is me being lazy and basically telling the code to eat provisions (when you get the chance) until your stamina is greater than your Initial Stamina minus the buffer. For example if your Initial Stamina is 14, Current Stamina 4 and you get the chance to eat Provisions with a buffer of 4 then you will eat 2 provisions to get 12 Stamina which is above 14  4. I imagine a more careful provision regime would improve things a little but customising it for the full range of starting stats seems a bit much for me.For instance it is fairly likely you will fight the skill 12 BirdMan with your skill also at 12 so this would be a one for one attrition resulting in on average an 8 stamina loss and so this is unlikely to be fatal. Likewise with the erm Chaos Warrior(?) you have a +1 attack strength advantage so how is this likely to be fatal? It must be something to do with me using an average while you are using an iteration system that identifies outlier possibilities. Agreed. I get survival rates with full 12 Skill, Stamina 14 stats of 82.2% for the Crystal Warrior and 82.8% against the BirdMan. (Hand calculated so not using luck.) But taken together surviving both is only about 68%.
If you play a gamebook 200 times in 50 years are outliers a rational strategy when they unlikely to be realised? Here what are the odds for instance of rolling a 1 or 2 followed by a double 6 erm 1/3*1/36? That seems to me to be an outlier possibility not often realised in reality? Also what are odds of passing the fatal luck rolls with a 72% chance of success followed by a 58% chance of success? Prima facie both rolls are on your side? The odds of rolling a 1 or 2 followed by a double 6 is 1/108, less than 1%, which won't have much effect on overall probabilities. The odds of passing the fatal luck rolls with a boosted Luck of 8 is [1  (10/36)(15/36)] which is about 88.4%.



Post by johnbrawn1972 on Dec 21, 2022 13:37:17 GMT
I have had a long think about this.
I love the flat structure as a kind of decision matrix so this should continue.
I think I will continue my 'mean average' system as a kind of complementary approach.
My last solutions tried to take advantage of the 'mean averages' especially Deathtrap Dungeon so I will keep doing this until I have a better idea. My fear is the flat structure will show my 12/14/7 Deathtrap Dungeon solution is very risky. I had tried to ensure you had a 72% chance of keeping your provisions and then use the provisions to give you a reasonable chance to exploit them. I beginning to wonder if you are better off taking a 58% chance of keeping your provisions. My idea was if you ignore 'outliers' you have a decent chance to exploit the endgame.
I think my problem is I am interpreting each encounter as a discrete encounter where afterwards you can top up with provisions to then have a fresh encounter. This is manifestly true but only to a degree. I think the flat structure interprets each encounter as a systematic risk and then these risks can be aggregated as in the flat system. I cannot 'see' this as I am only using 'intuition' with some help from the 'mean' averages which does inject some degree of reality as far as I can tell.



Post by johnbrawn1972 on Jun 7, 2023 17:04:18 GMT
This is yet another shout out to Rob. I have been trying to reach about 98% for Caverns of the Snow Witch. My new system is to use the Potion of Skill and the Rattlesnake route. My personal preference is to take 100 gold pieces or else I see little point. You might want to tighten up in strict achievement terms.
As far as I can tell with intuition only the 1/3 chance of losing a skill point has the potential to generate severe consequences. My idea is to take the Potion of Skill immediately as 4 stamina and 1 luck are easy to deal with. This 'blocks' the tiny 3 percent window perfectly. It is a boon the 1 skill penalty and Elfin Boots are on mutually exclusive paths as even if you lose the Potion of Skill at this early stage you are 'forced' to recover the skill point so the tiny 3 percent windows at the end are closed off.
My path is a little 'romantic' so anyone can make an amendment. If I recall 12/14/7 has a 98% chance of beating the Mammoth so I think the other probabilities, where you have 24 stamina, should generate 0.1% chances aggregated to create a failure matrix. I am hoping for 99% so ever the optimist.



Post by scouserob on Jun 8, 2023 8:49:35 GMT
Hi JohnBrawn
A Potion of Skill strategy. I never ever considered it, as usual.
I've got most of the code ready and don't have time at the moment to alter it to track whether you've taken the Potion of Skill after the casket or not. What I've done instead is give you two bottles of the Potion of Skill to take both then and before heading south on the rattlesnake path. (So you can kind of see this as an upper bound.)
I get your probability of survival with the two 2 Skill Potions at 63.75%.
The problem, I think, is the drain on Provisions. Looking at the percentages they seem to be running out in most cases between the Bird Man and the South/East path fork, leaving each wound after that point unhealable. By the time you reach the Sun Mask trial your survival rate is losing about 11.3% due to the adventurers clinging on with on going into it with 15 Stamina left.



Post by johnbrawn1972 on Jun 29, 2023 13:34:25 GMT
Caverns of the Snow Witch. 12/14/7. Potion of Skill.. Underlined equals most likely. If you would rather walk around the crevasse Mammoth sk10 st11 14st10st If you wish to use your sword to dig a shelter in the snow  2 provisions 8 meals If you wish to enter the hut If you wish to put some logs on the fire and warm up the cold stew in one of the pans  +3 stamina 10st13st If you wish to take a couple of them with you  1 stamina 13st12st Warhammer. Spear If you are If not  1d6 1=Yeti sk11 st12 12st6st 26=Yeti sk10 st9 12st10st 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=2d6 <=skill=ok 6L If you wish to turn right If you wish to drink some of the liquid  +3 stamina 8 meals 10st13st 7 meals 6st9st13st Tell him you have come to join the Snow Witch’s followers If you would rather change your story and tell the Elf that you intend to slay her cloak If you wish to enter the crude kitchen If you would rather attack the Snow Witch’s followers Neanderthal sk7 st8 If you wish to search through the cupboards and risk the Gnome returning with reinforcements Blow the flute silver flute. Read the runes on the stick runecarved wooden stick. Read the book  4 stamina. You may open the book 13st9st If you wish to put the chain around your neck Amulet of Courage +2 skill. Smell the rose  +3 stamina. You may leave the cave and turn left into the tunnel 9st12st If you are wearing a cloak  2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=or try to run for the tunnel 2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=odd=Demon sk9 st11. +1 luck even=3 stamina 7/8 meals 12st 5L 7/8 meals 12st 4L 6/7 meals 12st9st13st 4L 6/7 meals 12st10st14st 5L If you wish to turn left If you wish to help the Dwarf out of the pit Sling and three iron balls or you may attack him with your sword Strike the man to your right If you wish to try to smash his prism Genie. Enter the tunnel with the skull mouth If you wish to attack him If you have a sling and wish to use it against the Frost Giant  2d6 <=skill=ok If you wish to try on any of the rings Put on the gold ring resist cold. +1 luck. Or the copper ring 6L warrior. +1 luck. You may walk through to the next tunnel 7L Chaos Warrior sk11 st13(if luck=7 use 1 luck for extra damage) 5/6/7 meals 12st/13st/14st4st/5st/6st8st/9st/10st 6L If you wish to go right If you wish to knock on the door If you wish to attack him Zombie sk6 st6 jar of ground minotaur horn. garlic. four large dragon eggs If you possess any ground minotaur horn If you have some garlic If you possess a carved rune stick If your skill is higher than 10=ok Sentinel sk9 st9 Take 100 Gold Pieces. Drop Warhammer. Drop Spear. If you wish to turn left If you wish to ignore Redswift’s advice and pick up the orb Keep hold of the orb  +3 stamina. +1 luck 8st/9st/10st11st/12st/13st 7L  1d6 12=1 luck. 4 stamina. 1 skill(use Potion of Skill)34=ok 56=1d6 12=ok 3=4=ok 56=+1 luck. elfin boots 12S 4/5/6 meals 11st/12st/13st7st/8st/9st11st/12st/13st 6L Caveman sk8 st8 starshaped metal disc If you are wearing an Amulet of Courage Brain Slayer sk10 st10(if stamina=2 and luck=7 use 1 luck to reduce damage) 11st/12st/13st9st/10st/11st 6L Look inside the red pot square metal disc. If you now wish to look inside the grey pot If you wish to break the seal and read the scroll  2d6 <=skill=+1 luck >skill=1 luck. Or leave the cavern by the door opposite 7L If you would rather open the door  3 provisions. +4 stamina. If have passed skill roll above=If you wish to go left otherwise If you wish to go right* 1/2/3/4 meals 9st/10st/11st13st/14st/14st If you wish to take the shield If the words ‘Gul Sang Abi Daar’ mean anything to you shield +1 skill *If you have a shield=ok If you do not possess a shield=4 stamina. 1 luck Fire an iron ball from your sling at the globe  2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=1 luck. If it exceeds 10 in total=1 skill. 4 stamina  2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=If it exceeds 10 in total=1 skill. 4 stamina 11S 14st10st 6L Dwarf Zombie sk8 st9. Elf Zombie sk9 st9. same time 10st8st If you have any small metal discs Conceal the square disc  2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=4 stamina 8st4st 5L If you would rather walk on If you would rather wait for its owner to arrive  +2 stamina. If you wish to drink the liquid 4st6st  +1 skill. +4 stamina. +1 luck 12S 6st10st 6L  +4 stamina 10st14st If would rather ignore him and continue south  2d6 <=luck=BirdMan sk12 st8 >luck=2 stamina. BirdMan sk12 st8 0/1/2 meals 14st12st4st12st 0/1/2 meals 14st6st 14st 5L If you would rather resist the temptation to drink  1 stamina 12st11st 14st13st  +1 stamina 11st12st 13st14st  2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=Werewolf sk8 st10 4L  1st Hill troll sk9 st10 2nd Hill Troll sk9 st9. same time 0/1 meal 12st10st14st 14st12st  2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=1st Hill Troll sk8 st9. 2nd Hill Troll sk9 st9. same time. +1 skill 3L If you drank the Potion of Health that belonged to the Dark Elf  1 skill. 1 stamina. If you would rather cross the river by the rope bridge ahead of you, and walk south along the base of the hills for a while(use Potion of Skill) 12S 14st13st 12st11st  1 stamina. If you would rather keep walking up the gorge 13st12st 0/1 meal 11st10st14st  2d6 <=luck=ok 2d6 >luck=4 stamina 12st/12st8st 14st/14st10st 2L If you wish to climb up the ladder to the treehouse ManOrc sk8 st6 candle and a tinderbox If you are wearing elfin boots=ok If you are wearing ordinary boots=Barbarian sk9 st8 Three silver arrows heads. If you wish to wear the armband +1 skill 12S 8st6st/10st8st/12st10st/14st12st If you wish to enter the cave  1d6 stamina 0st8st If you possess a candle and tinderbox  2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=start again If you possess a dragon’s egg If you have drunk the dragon’s egg concoction  2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=Banshee sk12 st12 2d6 >skill=lose attack round If you possess any silver object(silver flute or silver arrow head) If you believe the bird to be a Phoenix



Post by johnbrawn1972 on Jun 29, 2023 16:26:33 GMT
Caverns of the Snow Witch. 12/24/12. Potion of Skill. If you would rather walk around the crevasse Mammoth sk10 st11 24st20st If you wish to use your sword to dig a shelter in the snow  2 provisions 8 meals If you wish to enter the hut If you wish to put some logs on the fire and warm up the cold stew in one of the pans  +3 stamina 20st23st If you wish to take a couple of them with you  1 stamina 23st22st Warhammer. Spear If you are If not  1d6 1=Yeti sk11 st12 22st16st 26=Yeti sk10 st9 22st20st  2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=2d6 <=skill=ok 11L If you wish to turn right If you wish to drink some of the liquid  +3 stamina 20st23st 16st19st Tell him you have come to join the Snow Witch’s followers If you would rather change your story and tell the Elf that you intend to slay her cloak If you wish to enter the crude kitchen If you would rather attack the Snow Witch’s servants Neanderthal sk7 st8 If you wish to search through the cupboards and risk the Gnome returning with reinforcements Blow the flute silver flute. Read the runes on the stick runecarved wooden stick. Read the book  4 stamina. You may open the book 23st19st 19st15st If you wish to put the chain around your neck Amulet of Courage +2 skill. Smell the rose  +3 stamina. You may leave the cave and turn left into the tunnel 19st22st 15st18st If you are wearing a cloak  2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=or try to run for the tunnel=2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=odd=Demon sk9 st11. +1 luck. even==3 stamina 22st 10L 18st 10L 22st 9L 18st 9L If you wish to turn left If you wish to help the Dwarf out of the pit Sling and three iron balls or you may attack him with your sword Strike the man to your right If you wish to try to smash his prism Genie. Enter the tunnel with the skull mouth If you wish to attack him If you have a sling and wish to use it against the Frost Giant  2d6 <=skill=ok If you wish to try on any of the rings Put on the gold ring resist cold. +1 luck. Or the copper ring 11L warrior. +1 luck. You may walk through to the next tunnel 12L Chaos Warrior sk11 st13(if luck=12 use 1 luck for extra damage) 22st16st 11L 18st12st 11L 22st14st 11L 18st10st 11L If you wish to go right If you wish to knock on the door If you wish to attack him Zombie sk6 st6 jar of ground minotaur horn. garlic. four large dragon eggs If you possess any ground minotaur horn If you have some garlic If you possess a carved rune stick If your skill is higher than 10=ok If your skill is 10 or less=2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=start again Sentinel sk9 st9 Take 100 Gold Pieces. Drop Warhammer. Drop Spear. If you wish to turn left If you wish to ignore Redswift’s advice and pick up the orb Keep hold of the orb  +3 stamina. +1 luck 16st19st 12st15st 14st17st 10st13st 12L  1d6 12=1 luck. 4 stamina. 1 skill(use Potion of Skill) 34=ok 56=1d6 12=ok 3=4=ok 56=+1 luck. elfin boots 8 meals 19st15st 7 meals 15st11st15st 8 meals 17st13st 7 meals 13st9st13st 11L Caveman sk8 st8 starshaped metal disc If you are wearing an Amulet of Courage Brain Slayer sk10 st10(if luck=12 use 1 luck for extra damage) 8 meals 19st17st 8 meals 15st13st 7/8 meals 15st13st 8 meals 17st15st 8 meals 13st11st 7/8 meals 13st11st 11L Look inside the red pot square metal disc. If you now wish to look inside the grey pot If you wish to break the seal and read the scroll  2d6 <=skill=+1 luck >skill=1 luck. Or leave the cavern by the door opposite 12L If you would rather open the door  3 provisions. +4 stamina. If you wish to go left 5 meals 17st21st 5 meals 13st17st 5 meals 13st17st 5 meals 15st19st 5 meals 11st15st 4/5 meals 11st15st If you wish to take the shield If the words ‘Gul Sang Abi Daar’ mean anything to you shield +1 skill If you have a shield=ok Fire an iron ball from your sling at the globe  2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=1 luck. If it exceeds 10 in total=1 skill. 4 stamina  2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=If it exceeds 10 in total=1 skill. 4 stamina 11L Dwarf Zombie sk8 st9. Elf Zombie sk9 st9. same time If you have any small metal discs Conceal the square disc  2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=4 stamina 10L If you would rather walk on If you would rather wait for its owner to arrive  +2 stamina. If you wish to drink the liquid 14st16st  +1 skill. +4 stamina. +1 luck 16st20st 11L  +4 stamina 20st24st If would rather ignore him and continue south  2d6 <=luck=BirdMan sk12 st8(use 2 luck for extra damage) >luck=2 stamina. BirdMan sk12 st8(use 2 luck for extra damage) 3/4 meals 24st20st24st 3/4 meals 24st22st18st22st 8L If you would rather resist the temptation to drink  1 stamina 24st23st 22st21st  +1 stamina 23st24st 21st22st  2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=Werewolf sk8 st10 7L  1st Hill troll sk9 st10 2nd Hill Troll sk9 st9 same time 24st22st 2/3 meals 22st20st24st  2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=1st Hill Troll sk8 st9. 2nd Hill Troll sk9 st9 same time. +1 skill 6L If you drank the Potion of Health that belonged to the Dark Elf  1 skill. 1 stamina. If you would rather cross the river by the rope bridge ahead of you, and walk south along the base of the hills for a while(use Potion of Skill) 22st21st 24st23st  1 stamina. If you would rather keep walking up the gorge 2/3 meals 21st20st24st 23st22st  2d6 <=luck=ok >luck=4 stamina 24st/24st20st 22st/22st18st 5L If you wish to climb up the ladder to the treehouse ManOrc sk8 st6 candle and a tinderbox If you are wearing elfin boots=ok If you are wearing ordinary boots=Barbarian sk9 st8 Three silver arrows heads. If you wish to wear the armband +1 skill 12S 18st/20st/22st/24st16st/18st/20st/22st If you wish to enter the cave  1d6 stamina 10st18st If you possess a candle and tinderbox  2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=start again If you possess a dragon’s egg If you have drunk the dragon’s egg concoction  2d6 <=skill=ok >skill=Banshee sk12 st12 2d6 >skill=lose attack round If you possess any silver object(silver flute or silver arrow head) If you believe the bird to be a Phoenix



Post by scouserob on Mar 29, 2024 15:34:51 GMT
Taking my cue from CharlesX in the solution thread for The Warlock of Firetop Mountain: I get the percentage chance of winning Caverns of the Snow Witch, prerolling for your Initial Skill, Stamina and Luck, to be: 15.4%

